Saturday's third-round action in the men's singles at the US Open promises several captivating encounters featuring the world's elite. Top contenders from upper half of the draw are about to be seriously tested while playing against two top Canadian players. The reigning champion Jannik Sinner faces Denis Shapovalov, while Alexander Zverev clashes with Felix Auger Aliassime. The bar goes up high after first two rounds against lower ranked players, with both the Canadians being already proved on the highest level and Saturday will give an answer where Sinner and Zverev are with their form during the title bid in New York. With Jack Draper's withdrawal due to an arm injury, the projected quarterfinal spot gets released, so the Italian derby between Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli gains extra significance - the winner could face Jannik Sinner in a potential all-Italian quarterfinal. Let's dive deep into breakdown of those and other most interesting match-ups of Day 7, which concludes the third round at Flushing Meadows.
Sinner vs. Shapovalov
Defending champion Jannik Sinner scored two comfortable wins for the start of the week, including the demolishion of Alexei Popyrin was more convincing than his opening match against Vit Kopriva. The Italian cruised 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in just two hours, denying his opponent any break opportunities while converting five of nine break points himself. It's now 23 consecutive victories for Sinner at hard-court majors - a streak dating back to the 2024 Australian Open.
Denis Shapovalov reached the third round after a four-set victory over Valentin Royer 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3. The 27th-seeded Canadian, who captured two ATP titles this year, reached the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time since Wimbledon. Against the Frenchman, he displayed his trademark aggression - recording 71 winners, more than double his opponent's tally. However, this was the up-and-down day on service line for the Canadian, who has fired an impressive 29 aces, but also commited 15 double faults.
The statistics speak volumes - the Italian has won 92% of his matches in the past year, while Shapovalov sits at just 65%. Intriguingly, their only previous meeting ended with the Canadian's five-set victory at the 2021 Australian Open, but Sinner has become a completely different player since then. The current world number one wins 96.55% of his Grand Slam matches, while Shapovalov maintains a 76.67% win rate on the main tour.
Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime
Alexander Zverev confidently advanced to the third round, eliminating Jacob Fearnley in four sets in round two. The German, who boasts a 45-16 record this season, displays consistent form on New York's courts. His serve remains his primary weapon, although he showed some vulnerabilities against Fearnley - scoring just 69% points on first serve and 47% on second serve - the values which are 6% lower than his average standard on hard courts this season. This not dismantled him from winning comfortably in straight sets by 6-4 6-4 6-4, though.
Felix Auger Aliassime needed two tiebreaks to score the routine victory against Roman Safiullin in second round. The Canadian, was quite ineffective in converting his chances - just 3 breaks out of 13 breakpoints created, but at least, he won all of three tiebreaks played in the tournament so far. He claimed titles in Adelaide and Montpellier this season, holds a 33-20 record, but his form appears uncertain. In previous encounters with Zverev, he's lost six of eight matches, including their most recent clash in Miami 2024 with a score 2-6, 4-6.
Their head-to-head history heavily favors Zverev - the German leads 6-2 in direct meetings, winning 15 of 21 sets played. This will be definitely a great serving quality, where at least one tie-break is very much the possibility. This can be some kind of advantage for Auger Aliassime, who has a series of 5 tiebreaks won in a row (3 already there at US Open), and is much more successful in decisive games on hard courts this year than his higher ranked opponent, which is well represented on the radar. Zverev is still a strong favorite, although getting matched-up against such a quality player on the relative early stage of the tournament was a trap draw for the German who needs to bring the proper level not to become the first out of top contenders to get out of the contention.
Musetti vs. Cobolli
This marks the first meeting between two Italian friends at ATP Tour level, though they've known each other since childhood. Lorenzo Musetti, ranked tenth in the ATP, breezed through his first two rounds - in the second round, he demolished David Goffin 6-4, 6-0, 6-2, dropping just six games. This was possibly his best performance on hard courts this year. The world number 10 is still yet to prove the versality on all surfaces, getting all of his relevant success on clay, but still struggling on hard surface. The wins like that and reaching out the third round is the good road for mastering those liabilities, especially having the favorable draw in the hindsight.
Flavio Cobolli had to navigate two five-set marathons to reach the third round. He defeated another Italian - the qualifier Francesco Passaro in the first round, but needed 3:45 hours to do that in 5 sets. Second round was no easier, as he overcame Jenson Brooksby in supertiebreak 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(10-3) with 4.5 hours needed to spend on court.. The Roman displayed incredible mental resilience - in the fifth set, he had two match points at 5-4, failed to convert them, but dominated the super tiebreak 10-3.
Musetti is the favorite of that match - despite his not impressive hardcourt performances (9 wins to 7 losses in 2025), Cobolli struggles even more with the negative record (8W - 10L including two wins at US Open so far). Looking at the effort needed by the world number 26 put already in this event and the significant differences on stats radar between both, Musetti should continue his run of gaining confidence with another comfortable win following what he does against Goffin on Thursday.
Paul vs. Bublik
Tommy Paul barely survived the second round, defeating Nuno Borges after nearly four and a half hours of play that ended at 2 AM. The American led two sets to love and had match points in the third, but ultimately had to battle through five sets, winning 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 5-7, 7-5. He could make the job done much earlier - having matchpoints in third set to deliver the easy straight sets win, but the Portuguese denied it, extending this match up to 4.5 hours of intense battle. It was not a pretty match, as Paul scored 46 winners committing 61 unforced errors, while his opponent was even more erratic (44 winners to 73 UFEs).
Alexander Bublik is in career-best form - he's won 15 out of last 16 matches and hasn't dropped a set in his last six encounters. This includes three titles - on grass and two ATP 250 clay events, however US Open is his first outing since July. The rust is no visible there for the Kazakh, as he is yet to lose a service game in the tournament. In the second round, he dismantled Tristan Schoolkate 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, saving all of 4 breakpoints. The Kazakh is serving phenomenally - in his last match, he won 84% of points on first serve and the extraordinary 95.5% against Marin Cilic in first round, scoring 16 aces in each of those matches.
Paul leads their head-to-head 5-1 and won their most recent encounter in Miami this year in three sets. However, fatigue after the late-night marathon could be the crucial factor - Bublik is fresh and firing, while Paul will have less than 48 hours to recover. This will be super interesting battle between the only one American contender in this half of the draw and the player who is in the enormous red hot form right now.
De Minaur vs. Altmaier
Alex de Minaur confidently advanced to the third round, defeating Shintaro Mochizuki 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 in the second round. However, the eighth-ranked Australian noted a very slow start, needed to defend breakpoints in all of the first three service games - 11 in total, and he saved all of those to finally kick-off his proper game. He was also vulnerable in second set, where the Japanase moved into early 2-0 lead, but since then, De Minaur regained the control of a match. This marks his seventh advancement to the US Open third round, and this season he boasts an impressive 40-15 record, including 21-7 on hard courts.
Daniel Altmaier emerged as one of the tournament's early heroes - the German eliminated 26th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hamad Medjedovic after two extreme marathons, already described in our yesterday's review of second round.
De Minaur hasn't defeated a top-10 player in over a year, but against lower-ranked opponents, he's extremely effective as he won 30 out of 34 matches as a favorite rated with an odd < 1.50 on hard courts in the recent ranking period. His speed and return of serve should prove crucial against Altmaier, who'll need to play the match of his life to cause another enormous upset. The Australian has added motivation - with Draper absent from the draw, he can realistically think about the quarterfinals, as his eventual win over the German will be followed with the match against Musetti or Cobolli, where he will be the favorite against either of both.
