The US Open women's semifinals present a fascinating study in contrasts: a championship rematch between power and precision at the top of the draw, and a clash between two resurgents finding their form at the perfect time in the bottom half. After Marketa Vondrousova's unfortunate withdrawal handed Aryna Sabalenka a walkover into the semifinals, the defending champion awaits Jessica Pegula in a repeat of last year's final. Meanwhile, two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka seeks to extend her perfect record in major quarterfinals, semifinals and finals against Amanda Anisimova, who produced the biggest upset of the semifinals by avenging her Wimbledon final abasement.
Sabalenka vs. Pegula
The defending champion Aryna Sabalenka received an unexpected gift when Marketa Vondrousova withdrew from their quarterfinal match due to a knee injury sustained during warm-up. The walkover marked the first time Sabalenka has advanced via retirement or withdrawal at a major, ensuring she enters Thursday's semifinal completely fresh against an opponent who has been equally dominant throughout the fortnight.
Sabalenka's path to the semifinals has been nothing short of imperious. The world No. 1 has not dropped a set en route to the final four, becoming the first woman to reach the quarterfinals of all four majors in a calendar year without losing a set since Venus Williams in 1998. Her serving statistics tell the story of her dominance - winning 95% of her service games (38 of 40) through the tournament, the highest percentage in the women's field. The Belarusian has faced just 27 break points across six matches, saving 21 of them with the kind of clutch play that separates champions from contenders. Her 12th consecutive major quarterfinal appearance extends the longest active streak since Serena Williams' remarkable run from 2000 to 2005.
Jessica Pegula's resurgence after poor summer campaign when she won just 2 matches in American hard courts swing has been equally impressive, though achieved through different means. The American has conceded just 23 games through five matches - the fewest of any player reaching the semifinals. Her 6-3, 6-3 quarterfinal victory over Barbora Krejcikova demonstrated the clinical efficiency that has characterized her entire tournament. Pegula broke Krejcikova six times while saving four of five break points against her own serve, maintaining the kind of consistency that frustrated opponents struggle to match. The 4th seed native has yet to face a top-50 player in the draw, but she has maximized her opportunities, winning an astonishing rate of 70.7% return games, 48.5% of first return and 69.4% of second return points.
The head-to-head history heavily favors Sabalenka, who holds a commanding 7-2 advantage over Pegula. Their most recent encounters have all been one-sided affairs on hard courts - Sabalenka prevailed 7-5, 7-5 in last year's US Open final, 6-3, 7-5 in the Cincinnati final just weeks ago, and has won their last three meetings without dropping a set. Pegula's last victory came at the 2023 WTA Finals, but that feels like ancient history given Sabalenka's current form. The defending champion has won 43 hard-court major matches since the start of 2023, tied with Iga Swiatek for the most among active players. In long rallies lasting nine or more shots, Sabalenka dominated 12 of 15 in last year's final, showcasing the kind of sustained power that Pegula struggled to counter. In fact, Sabalenka's draw was also favorable, as Leylah Fernandez was the only top-50 player on her road (ranked 30th) and the Belarusian still did not lose any service game in that tie. Her pre-match odds were respectively 1.02, 1.03, 1.15, 1.04, which seems that she was not properly tested yet. The stats comparison between both semifinalists show that they weapons were laying in different dimensions this fortnight - the discrepancy is huge on serve and return in both sides - promises the battle of styles on Thursday. However, the general compare of their performance on hard courts this season looks more smoothed with the reliable Sabalenka's advantage in almost all aspects.
Anisimova vs. Osaka
The second semifinal offers a compelling narrative of redemption and resurgence. Amanda Anisimova's 6-4, 6-3 upset of world No. 2 Iga Swiatek marked one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent Grand Slam history. Just 53 days after suffering a devastating 6-0, 6-0 loss to Swiatek in the Wimbledon final - a match that lasted just 57 minutes - Anisimova produced a masterclass of controlled aggression to reach her third major semifinal and first at Flushing Meadows.
Anisimova's transformation was evident in every statistic. After winning just 24 points in the entire Wimbledon final, she surpassed that total midway through the first set against Swiatek. The American fired 23 winners to Swiatek's 13 while committing just 12 unforced errors, a stark contrast to the 19 unforced errors she made at the All England Club. Her flat, penetrating groundstrokes consistently pushed Swiatek behind the baseline, and when the Polish player double-faulted to trail 5-3 in the second set, Anisimova seized her opportunity. The victory made her the first woman in the Open Era to defeat an opponent at a major who had double-bageled her earlier that same year. Breaking immediately after being broken in the opening game of both sets showed remarkable mental fortitude - a quality that was absent during her Wimbledon nightmare.
Naomi Osaka's journey to the semifinals has been equally impressive, marking her return to the business end of majors for the first time since winning the 2021 Australian Open. The 23rd seed's 6-4, 7-6(3) quarterfinal victory over Karolina Muchova extended her perfect record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, semifinals and finals to 13-0 - a statistic that should give Anisimova pause. Osaka has dropped just one set throughout the tournament, to Daria Kasatkina in the third round, while showcasing the kind of baseline power that made her a four-time major champion. The 2018 and 2020 US Open champion has surely had the most challenging road through the field out of all the semifinalists - she needed to dispatch three top-20 players in three consecutive rounds, including the champ from 2 years ago and the semifinalists from two previous seasons. She passed this test perfectly with two another top tier hurdles to pass on the path for the eventual 3rd US Open title.
Against Muchova, Osaka demonstrated impressive composure in crucial moments, saving 5 out of 7 breakpoints and converting 4 out of 5 on return. The Japanese did not bring her A game on serve this day, as Muchova did her best to disarm Osaka's biggest weapon. The Czech created 23 pressure points in compare to just 9 produced by Osaka. The Japanese has also won "just" 44% of second serve points in compare to stunning 77% against Gauff in previous round. The former world number one was clinical though, winning 14/23 pressure points on serve and especially 6/9 on return, which settled the scoreline despite very good performance of her opponent. Her 226 aces for the 2025 season rank among the tour leaders, and her first-serve win rate of 78.9% on hard courts demonstrates the kind of consistency that has been missing during her comeback from maternity leave. The Japanese star's statement 6-3, 6-2 victory over Coco Gauff in the fourth round - her first win over a top-5 player at a major - announced her return to elite level tennis. She won 32 of 38 service points against Gauff, including 15 of 16 points on first serve, numbers that suggest her confidence is at its highest since returning to the tour.
The head-to-head record favors Anisimova by 2-0 with both of her victories coming at majors in 2022 - in 4th round of Australian Open and in 2nd round of Roland Garros. Both players possess similar power games, with Anisimova's flat backhand matching up well against Osaka's forehand-dominated patterns. The American's ability to redirect pace and change direction could prove crucial, while Osaka's superior movement and court coverage - significantly improved since her return - may neutralize Anisimova's attempts to hit through the court. Osaka is one of the most storming servers in the field on hard courts, however Anisimova matches her performances in this dimension during the US Open so far. Aforementioned clinical play of Osaka during the key points is much visible in the chart from their records in this tournament, as the Japanese converted extraordinary 80.6% of breakpoints. With both players having overcome significant personal and professional challenges to reach this stage, the mental aspect could prove decisive in what promises to be a baseline slugfest worthy of Arthur Ashe Stadium.
