Saturday's semifinals at the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai deliver a captivating blend of championship pedigree and underdog magic. With many of top contenders being already out of contention, the path has opened for resurgent veterans and breakthrough outsiders alike. The day's standout narrative centers on Novak Djokovic's 5th Shanghai title bid in a match-up against sensational qualifier Valentin Vacherot who performed series of huge upsets which trademarks one of the most exceptional runs in recent years. Daniil Medvedev continues his resurgence of form on Chinese soil, playing against Arthur Rinderknech who single-handedly kicked several favorites out of the tournament.
Djokovic vs. Vacherot
Novak Djokovic's quest for a fifth Shanghai title continues Saturday against the tournament's most unlikely semifinalist. The 38-year-old Serbian has battled through difficult conditions all week, struggling with the heat and humidity that have plagued the event. His 6-3, 7-5 victory over Zizou Bergs in the quarterfinals marked his 80th ATP Masters 1000 semifinal, extending a record that may never be broken. Djokovic has needed medical attention multiple times this week, vomiting during matches and collapsing from exhaustion against Jaume Munar, yet his champion's mentality has carried him through three-set victories over qualifiers Yannick Hanfmann and Munar.
The four-time Shanghai champion has been far from his best but continues finding ways to win. Against Bergs, Djokovic struck just 11 winners and saved four of five break points, but overplayed his opponent in decisive games of both sets. His 6-3, 5-7, 6-2 victory over Munar was particularly hard-earned, requiring medical attention after he lost the second set. Despite reaching all four Grand Slam semifinals in 2025, he's failed to secure a major title for the first time since 2017 and won just one ATP 250 tournament in Geneva this year, making Shanghai's absence of Sinner and Alcaraz a golden opportunity.
Valentin Vacherot has authored a fairytale run that defies explanation. The 26-year-old Monegasque entered qualifying as an alternate ranked 204th in the world and has since defeated Laslo Djere, 14th seed Alexander Bublik, 20th seed Tomas Machac (retirement), Tallon Griekspoor, and 10th seed Holger Rune. His comeback victory over Rune was particularly dramatic. After losing the first set 6-2, Vacherot clawed back to win 7-6(4), 6-4, displaying remarkable mental fortitude. Vacherot was on the edge of closure for his fairytale run - saving breakpoints at the start of second set and being three points away of defeat with 4-4 score during tiebreak. He stayed mentally strong enough to serve for the victory in third set, clearing two breakpoints from his much higher rated opponent and was not shy to grab the biggest victory of his career so far.
Vacherot's previous best result in 2025 was reaching the Francavilla Challenger final, making his Shanghai run all the more improbable. He carries a modest 42-22 record for the season, but grinded mostly in ATP Challenger Tour events. His serve has been a weapon throughout the tournament, and he's shown the physical conditioning to outlast opponents in grueling three-set battles. Vacherot will rise from 204th to inside the top 100 when rankings update Monday, with a potential climb to 58th if he defeats Djokovic.
That's first match between both and surely Vacherot's match of his life. Djokovic's experience at that level is unmatched, and while he's struggled physically this week, the two-day gap since his last match should provide crucial recovery time. Vacherot has already exceeded all expectations and will be playing with house money, but the gap in class and experience appears insurmountable. Djokovic's ability to raise his level in big moments and his superior shot-making should prove decisive.
No comparison graphics due to lack of sufficient data for Valentin Vacherot - ranked outside top 150, Shanghai Masters being his first ATP Tour level event of the season.
Medvedev vs. Rinderknech
Daniil Medvedev has rediscovered his championship credentials in Asia after a torrid 2025 season saw him plummet to world number 18. The Russian parted ways with longtime coach Gilles Cervara following a first-round US Open loss to Benjamin Bonzi, but the decision appears vindicated. Working with new coaches Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke, Medvedev reached the quarterfinals in Hangzhou, the semifinals in Beijing missing the advance into final by a margin, and now the semifinals again in Shanghai. His victories over Learner Tien and seventh seed Alex de Minaur have been particularly impressive. Medvedev has surpassed something which could be called a curse in his matches against Learner Tien, even if both met just two times this year, grinding through the challenging three-setter in round of 16. The victory over De Minaur was just his third win over top 10 ranked player this season after two wins against Alexander Zverev before.
The 29-year-old's serve has been the proper weapon again throughout the tournament, even though Medvedev has committed unusual 11 double faults against Tien and 6 against De Minaur. In quarterfinals, Medvedev struck 25 winners against just 13 unforced errors, showcasing the defensive consistency and counterpunching prowess that once made him world number one. His 6-4, 6-4 win demonstrated he can still trouble the elite when his level rises. After dropping to 27-18 for the season following his Hangzhou loss to Wu Yibing, Medvedev has won seven of his last eight matches heading into Saturday's clash. The battle with De Minaur was not a cakewalk - both players had their chances in two sets which could went either way. De Minaur produced 21 pressure points, facing 22 on own serve. The resilience in clutch moments was the key - Medvedev won 17 out of 21 pressure points on own serve and as many as 15/22 on return. He defended his early lead in first set, clearing breakpoints in three service games in a row and made a decisive gap in later stages of second set. That has also exposed De Minaur's liability against top tier players. The Aussie perfectly thrives on his high seeding spots, dispatching lower ranked opponents with no trouble. His record in scenario when being rated by pre-match no higher than 1.50 is 41-5, but when his self-odd is at least 1.50 (even when favorite like today before Medvedev's clash), this record is really poor - just 5 victories in 18 matches played over whole 2025 season.
Arthur Rinderknech has authored one of the most stunning stories of the Asian swing. The 30-year-old Frenchman entered Shanghai ranked 54th and has mowed down three seeded opponents en route to his maiden Masters 1000 semifinal. His victims include third seed Alexander Zverev, 15th seed Jiri Lehecka, and 12th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Zverev victory was particularly noteworthy as it marked Rinderknech's second win over the German in 2025, following their five-set marathon at Wimbledon. Against Zverev, Rinderknech won 24 of 29 points at the net in sets two and three, demonstrating improved aggressive tactics. His aggressive serving has been exceptional in Shanghai, holding 94 percent of his service games across five matches. Against Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, the Frenchman didn't face a single break point while converting two of his own to secure a 6-3, 6-4 victory in just 87 minutes. His first-serve winning percentage of 85 percent in that match showcased why he's been so difficult to break down this week. Win over the Canadian was no much less surprising than Zverev's upset - Auger-Aliassime is the semifinalist of US Open and approached that match after crucial victory over Lorenzo Musetti which opened his way to qualification into ATP Finals. The world number 12 had all in his hands, being a favorite over the Frenchman, but the well-disposed Rinderknech gave him no serious chances, so the gap stays with significant 430 points to reduce.
Medvedev leads the head-to-head 1-0, having defeated Rinderknech 6-2, 7-5, 6-3 at the 2022 US Open. The Russian's superior shot tolerance and defensive skills make him a nightmare matchup for big servers like Rinderknech, particularly on hard courts where his counterpunching game thrives. While Rinderknech has held serve exceptionally well this week, Medvedev won 46 percent of return points in his recent matches and converted 34 percent of break point opportunities.
The statistical comparison reflects Medvedev's struggles with converting his quality that has never disappeared - into winning the matches. Medvedev is still very much dominant player on the court, but his Dominance Efficiency Ratio is below baseline, with not much better ratio of converting his on-court performance into victories. That has raises up with his confidence during tournaments in China so if the trend continues, it's a proof that Medvedev can still be in a pack of top contenders in biggest tournaments.
