Time to return to hard courts: Toronto kicks off ATP’s North American summer swing
It’s time to come back to hard courts action after Wimbledon and a few days of less thrilling atmosphere during the smaller-grade European clay events in July. Toronto traditionally hosts the first ATP 1000 tournament of the North American swing played in August, preceding the event in Cincinnati and culminating in the US Open.
Toronto welcomes a 96-player main draw, with 32 seeds receiving a bye in the opening round. The field is large, though it has been significantly altered by the withdrawals of several top stars. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner pulled out due to an elbow injury sustained at Wimbledon, while Carlos Alcaraz cited physical and mental fatigue after a demanding summer stretch. Novak Djokovic also opted out with a groin issue, and Jack Draper continues to manage a lingering arm injury. Their absence reshapes the draw and opens the door for new contenders to make a deep run in Toronto.
Even despite these absences, the tournament is set to be an exciting one, with the field being wide open and no clear favorites.
Zverev, Ruud and Medvedev looking for form to come back
Alexander Zverev is the top seed here, playing his first event since a disappointing Wimbledon exit, where he was upset in the first round by Artur Rinderknech. His hard court season earlier this year included a strong run to the Australian Open final, but he struggled in Indian Wells and Miami, winning only two of four matches.
His projected quarterfinal opponent based on seeding could be Holger Rune, who has had a mixed season. However, the Dane was a finalist in Indian Wells — the highlight of his year and a reminder of his hard court capabilities.
Daniil Medvedev will also look to revive his form, hoping to replicate his Toronto title run from four years ago. Currently ranked 14th, Medvedev recently suffered a surprising loss to Corentin Moutet in the Washington DC Open quarterfinals.
Francisco Cerundolo could emerge as a dark horse in this section. The Argentine was a quarterfinalist in both Sunshine Double events and has a manageable draw in Toronto.
Shapovalov & Machac bring momentum to underpowered second quarter
Lorenzo Musetti is the highest seed in this section, but the Italian has yet to prove himself outside of clay. He has won 19 out of 23 matches on clay this year, but has not managed a deep run on hard courts, with two wins in one tournament being his best showing so far. The second-highest seed, Casper Ruud, has also struggled for consistent form in 2025.
Based on recent performances, other names might steal the spotlight here. Tomas Machac arrives with solid form, having claimed the ATP 500 title in Acapulco and reached two semifinals in Asian ATP 1000 events last fall. Denis Shapovalov, meanwhile, appears to be the most in-form player in this quarter. He heads into his home tournament after winning Los Cabos, delivering four straight-set victories in the process. Shapovalov and Machac could face each other as early as the third round — a potential highlight of the early stages in Toronto.
Stacked third quarter: De Minaur, Shelton, Tsitsipas, Auger Aliassime all in the mix
The third quarter is arguably the strongest, packed with players in top form across all surfaces this season. Ben Shelton arrives fresh from a semifinal in Washington and a Wimbledon quarterfinal, and is seeded fourth. Alex De Minaur will play in Toronto following tonight’s final in Washington, and stands as the best-performing player in this section according to the performance heatmap.
A potential third-round clash between De Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas is one of the marquee matchups in this quarter — a true popcorn match.
Felix Auger Aliassime is another Canadian hoping to shine at home. Alongside De Minaur, he’s among the players in this section who generate the most pressure on opponents' serves. Brandon Nakashima, who has made a breakthrough this year, could meet Shelton in the third round in what promises to be another exciting matchup.
Fritz leads the bottom quarter while Czech duo eye deep runs
Taylor Fritz is the top name in the final quarter, seeded second overall. The 6th seed, Andrey Rublev, is having a disappointing year despite winning in Doha early in the season. He’s suffered multiple first-round losses on hard courts, including at the Australian Open and last week in Washington.
Two young Czech players could make some noise in this part of the draw — 12th seed Jakub Mensik and 19th seed Jiri Lehecka. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will also be in action after reaching the final in Washington. He may face Corentin Moutet in a high-stakes second-round clash, assuming the Frenchman — a semifinalist in DC — can get past Jenson Brooksby in his opener.
