The ATP 1000 event in Toronto opened at full speed, as all seeded players entered the competition after first‑round byes and launched their campaigns with authority. Early rounds rarely go without surprises, yet this time the top sixteen seeds all cleared their first hurdles, a rare show of consistency as the North American hard‑court swing begins. Most favorites moved on without dropping a set, signaling that the leading pack is ready for a deep run.

Canadian Stars Suffer Early Exits

While the global favorites remained untouched, local fans were left heartbroken. Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger Aliassime both fell at the first step.

Shapovalov, fresh from his Los Cabos title, was eliminated by rising American Learner Tien 7‑6(4), 7‑5. Auger‑Aliassime also disappointed after arriving with a solid hard‑court resume in 2025, including a final and a semifinal in the Middle East. The 24‑year‑old Canadian created more pressure points and break opportunities than Fabian Marozsan, but could not convert enough of them. He won only 21.6% of return points, far too low to make a real impact. Even his serve – usually his most reliable weapon – let him down: just 2 aces, 5 double faults, and only two‑thirds of points won behind the first serve.

As a result, Gabriel Diallo remains the lone home representative. He defeated Matteo Gigante 6‑3, 7‑6(5) to keep the Canadian flag in the draw. His next challenge is enormous: a third‑round meeting with top American Taylor Fritz, who overcame Roberto Carballes Baena 7‑5, 7‑6(1) in a match that was competitive despite the straight‑sets scoreline.

Early Upsets Reshape the Draw

Even though the top sixteen seeds survived, the round of 64 was not without drama. Some upsets denied fans the matchups they were hoping for after the draw release.

Alex de Minaur, fresh from his Washington title, did his job professionally by defeating Francisco Comesana 6‑4, 6‑2. He was lined up for a potential blockbuster against Stefanos Tsitsipas, but instead, an all‑Australian derby awaits. Christopher O’Connell shocked the Greek 6‑4, 4‑6, 6‑2 in a match that unfolded with razor‑thin margins early on. They split the first two sets with just a single break each, but in the decider O’Connell surged ahead: he broke in the opening game, saved three break points in the next from 0‑40, and later extended his lead to a double break. That cushion proved decisive as he completed the biggest upset of the round.

For context, O’Connell’s 2.95 pre‑match odds were the highest of any winner in this stage, showing how unusually stable the favorites were in Toronto’s first round.

Another anticipated third‑round clash, Tomas Machac vs. Denis Shapovalov, also never materialized. Machac has been one of the most intriguing in‑form players of 2025 — not a front‑page star, but consistently dangerous behind the top names. Instead, he bowed out to Reilly Opelka in a hard‑court serving duel. There were no breaks until the start of the decider, but Machac’s inefficiency cost him dearly: he generated 22 pressure points on Opelka’s serve, converted only 3, and ultimately fell in straight‑set style after the final set slipped away.

Top Seeds Cruise Through Opening Tests

All top seeds advanced, most without dropping a set, confirming their stability on Canadian hard courts.

Alexander Zverev began his campaign with trademark composure and a reliable serve. His first match against Adam Walton required focus, as he had to save a set point in the opening‑set tiebreak, but he pulled through and closed the second set routinely to advance in straight sets.

Lorenzo Musetti, the third seed, finally gave his fans a reason to smile. He defeated James Duckworth 7‑5, 6‑1, ending a frustrating stretch without victories. Italian media noted that “they finally saw Lorenzo smile” again. Most of Musetti’s career success comes on clay, and he has rarely strung together wins on hard courts; every victory here is a building block to support his high ranking.

Daniil Medvedev entered with his usual poker face and got through a patchy encounter with Dalibor Svrcina. The Russian complained about slippery footing and gusty wind but held firm in the key moments to move into the next round.

Frances Tiafoe was the only top seed truly in danger – the 7th seed was on the verge of elimination against Yosuke Watanuki. The Japanese player crushed Tiafoe in the first set 6‑1, playing superbly and striking 13 winners to only three from the American. In the second set, he continued his brilliant level, producing 16 winners and coming within a step of victory, earning break points at 5‑5. Tiafoe saved both, broke serve, and forced a decider.

In the final set, both men held serve perfectly. Tiafoe finally prevailed in the tiebreak, needing three match points and winning after the only mini‑break in the deciding game. The final score: 1‑6, 7‑5, 7‑6(5).

Key Second-Round Battles for the Favorites

The next round brings intriguing matchups for the highest seeds in all four quarters.

Alexander Zverev faces 32nd seed Matteo Arnaldi, entering as a clear favorite but still on a path of rebuilding confidence after a disappointing mid‑season stretch. Arnaldi already tested him earlier this year in Acapulco, forcing a three‑set battle that Zverev won 6‑4 in the decider.


Lorenzo Musetti draws Alex Michelsen, the 26th seed, in what looks like one of the more unpredictable clashes of the round. Musetti remains a well‑known clay‑court specialist and has yet to win more than two matches in a single hard‑court tournament this season. Michelsen, meanwhile, continues his rise among the young American contingent, highlighted by his run to the fourth round of the Australian Open. Statistical comparisons suggest this match could genuinely go either way.


The all‑American showdown between Ben Shelton and Brandon Nakashima promises fireworks. Shelton arrives in strong form after a semifinal in Washington and a dominant 6‑2, 6‑4 win over Adrian Mannarino in his opener. Nakashima, one year older, has shown flashes of brilliance — including a round of 16 appearance in Montreal last year — but history favors Shelton. The 21‑year‑old left‑hander has won all four of their previous meetings without dropping a set.


Finally, Taylor Fritz will meet the last remaining Canadian hope, Gabriel Diallo. Fritz is still searching for his first hard‑court final of the season, a statistic that might feel underwhelming for a top‑ranked American. For Diallo, the challenge is immense: he has not yet managed to win more than one main‑draw match on hard courts this year. Playing at home is his greatest asset, but even that may not bridge the experience gap. Fritz’s superior consistency and heavy first‑strike game make him the clear favorite, though Diallo’s impressive tiebreak record on hard courts in 2025 could offer the crowd some suspense.


For a full breakdown of the Toronto ATP 1000 draw, including pre‑tournament analysis, key withdrawals and quarter‑by‑quarter favorites, our comprehensive preview is still available → Toronto ATP 1000 Analysis: Draw Breakdown, Key Withdrawals & Quarter‑by‑Quarter Preview