The Thursday's action in the ATP 1000 tournament in Toronto delivered some interesting settlements. The top seed swept through as Alexander Zverev scored his 500th ATP victory against Matteo Arnaldi. Two big names got eliminated, however, not both of those cases were such big upsets.

Zverev Celebrates Career Milestone

Alexander Zverev needed three sets to cross the finish line against the 32nd-ranked Matteo Arnaldi. The first one was a highlight of this match, as it lasted 82 minutes with a few plot twists. Zverev moved ahead from the start with a 4-2 lead, but Arnaldi came back level and even had chances to break the German to clinch the set in the 10th game. What didn’t happen there got delayed into the tiebreak, which was won by just one mini-break by the Italian, who was more than solid with 18 winners scored in the first set.

The trend shifted at the start of the second set. Zverev, once again off to a good start, this time managed to protect his lead and force a decider, which was also under routine control of the top seed. 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 is the final score after 2 hours and 48 minutes of play—mostly lengthened by the exciting first set.

Zverev owes the comeback after losing the first set to being clinical during pressure points on his serve, winning 22 out of 27 of them. Arnaldi lacked consistency throughout the whole match, becoming erratic in the third set and never being close to sealing the match. Zverev needed just 712 matches to score 500 professional wins and remains the top favorite in his half of the draw.

Medvedev and Musetti Eliminated

Daniil Medvedev is not playing his best season, and the loss to Alexei Popyrin is another sign of the not-so-optimal form of the former ATP ranking leader. Interestingly, it was the Australian who took the initiative from the start, playing much more aggressively than his favored opponent. Medvedev managed to scrape through the first set, but started both of the following ones poorly, losing the break in the opening game twice and being unable to chase the score down. He double-faulted eight times and committed 40 unforced errors. Popyrin also didn’t play the cleanest match but was offensive and effective enough to pull off an upset, which was rated at 3.89 odds pre-match.

It's another loss for the current world number 14 as a confident pre-match favorite, following early exits at Wimbledon and a quarterfinal loss in Washington last week. It’s becoming a trend: he has won just 22 out of 33 matches while being a clear favorite in the current ranking period.

Lorenzo Musetti was one who could be identified as an upset alert ahead of his match against Alex Michelsen. The performance charts before it did not show any clear favorite, especially knowing that the Italian is a clay-court specialist and hadn’t won more than two matches in any hard-court outing in 2025. Being the 3rd seed due to the absence of the top names, he still didn’t capitalize on the opportunity, despite a good start to the match.

Musetti won the first set 6-3 with a really clean performance, hitting some strong winners and not facing a single breakpoint. He could’ve moved ahead in the second set as well, but Michelsen defended a breakpoint in the opening game. The American started to take more initiative and was rewarded with a second-set win in a tiebreak. The third set started more erratically. Musetti took an early lead, but Michelsen raised his level impressively, coming back from 0-2 down to win the match 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4. He dominated in decisive games and hit a brilliant 22 winners in the third set. He faced much more pressure on serve (37 points) compared to the 24 created on return, but defended the most crucial moments—especially the aforementioned breakpoint in the second set, which could’ve made the match one-sided.

Round of 16 Preview – Top Half

The Round of 16 matchups for the top half promise great entertainment on Saturday, as each of the four pairings carries an intriguing storyline. Here's the breakdown with statistical context.

Zverev should be an obvious favorite against Francisco Cerundolo; however, the Argentinian has been a nightmare matchup for him so far, having won all three of their previous meetings. All of those came on clay, including one earlier this year in Madrid. Cerundolo, the 14th seed, has improved his hard-court game significantly, already reaching quarterfinals in both Indian Wells and Miami. He earned the showdown with Zverev after defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry in an Argentinian derby 6-3, 6-4. An upset is not out of the cards here.


Alexei Popyrin meets another big name who has struggled in 2025. However, 5th seed Holger Rune has had a solid start in Toronto, not only avoiding set losses but not facing a single breakpoint yet (!) in his matches against Alexandre Muller and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He faced just two pressure points against Muller and four against Perricard—all of which he saved. Continuing this impressive serving performance, he will be a much tougher opponent for Popyrin than Medvedev was on a vulnerable day.


Alex Michelsen sets up a clash between two rising Americans, facing Learner Tien. The 19-year-old survived another fellow American, Reilly Opelka, defeating the ace machine 7-6(3), 6-3. Any outcome is possible here, and whoever wins on Saturday, reaching an ATP 1000 quarterfinal will be a huge milestone and boost for the future.


Karen Khachanov and Casper Ruud meet in a high-profile clash without a clear favorite. Khachanov, the current Wimbledon quarterfinalist, had to come back from a set down against Emilio Nava, eventually winning 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-1. Ruud reached the Round of 16 after routine straight-set wins over Roman Safiullin and Nuno Borges. The Norwegian has also won both previous meetings with Khachanov—the last being a significant one in the 2022 US Open semifinal.


Before you go — you can revisit our pre-tournament draw analysis here,and recap the opening stages action here.