The ATP Cincinnati Open delivers an electric semifinal lineup on Saturday, with world number two Carlos Alcaraz and third-ranked Alexander Zverev set for a heavyweight collision. The other semifinal features defending champion Jannik Sinner's daunting challenge against French qualifier Terence Atmane, whose fairytale run has captivated tennis fans throughout the week. Both matches promise high-stakes drama as players vie for Sunday's championship match and crucial momentum heading into the US Open.
Sinner vs. Atmane
Jannik Sinner's title defense gained momentum with a ruthless 6-0, 6-2 quarterfinal demolition of Felix Auger-Aliassime that lasted just 70 minutes. The world number one has been in imperious form, dropping only 19 games across three matches. Most remarkably, Sinner has yet to face a single break point in the tournament, winning 84% of first-serve points and 65% on second serve. He is on the 17-matches winning streak on hard courts, reaching all the way since the latest lose to Alcaraz in Beijing 10 months ago.
The Italian's dominance in Cincinnati has been comprehensive - he's won 48 of 57 games played, breaking serve 11 times while never facing pressure on his own delivery. His average rally length of just 3.8 shots demonstrates his ability to dictate play from the baseline, either finishing points quickly or forcing errors from opponents. Sinner is bidding to become the first player to successfully defend the Cincinnati title since Djokovic's back-to-back triumphs in 2019-2020. He hasn't been broken in his last 47 service games dating back to Montreal, making him an almost insurmountable challenge for any opponent.
Terence Atmane's stunning run from qualifying to the semifinals ranks among the tournament's greatest Cinderella stories. The Frenchman, ranked outside the top 100, produced another upset by dismantling seventh seed Holger Rune 6-2, 6-3 in just over an hour. Atmane broke Rune five times while saving four of five break points faced, displaying the fearless tennis that has characterized his breakthrough week. His victims include established stars Flavio Cobolli, João Fonseca, Taylor Fritz, and now Rune - a remarkable sequence for a player making his Masters 1000 main draw debut.
Atmane's aggressive baseline game has caught opponents off guard throughout the week. He's won 73% of first-serve points and converted an impressive 44% of break point opportunities (15 of 34). The 22-year-old qualifier has spent over eight hours on court compared to Sinner's four and a half, potentially a factor in what shapes up as a massive physical and mental challenge. No qualifier has reached a Masters 1000 final since Jerzy Janowicz in Paris 2012, and none has ever won a title at this level. While Atmane has nothing to lose and will need to maintain his ultra-aggressive approach, Sinner's consistency and court coverage present a near-impossible puzzle to solve. The Italian thrives on absorbing pace and redirecting it with interest, exactly the type of game that could neutralize Atmane's power.
Alcaraz vs. Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz survived a roller-coaster quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev, prevailing 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 in a match that showcased both his fighting spirit and vulnerability. The Spaniard dominated the opening set with two breaks of serve, but Rublev struck back in the second, capitalizing on Alcaraz's loss of focus to level the match. The deciding set turned into a mental battle, with Alcaraz fighting through 15 unforced errors and three double faults. After breaking for 5-3 and failing to serve out the match, the world number two found himself at 5-5 and under immense pressure. In a dramatic finish, Rublev cracked under pressure, double-faulting on match point to hand Alcaraz his 15th consecutive ATP Masters 1000 victory.
This marked the tenth time this season that Alcaraz has dropped the second set after winning the first in best-of-three matches - he's now won nine of those battles. The Spaniard's path through Cincinnati has been anything but smooth, having been broken in all four matches and twice needing three sets to advance. Despite these struggles, Alcaraz maintains a Tour-leading 52 wins and five titles in 2025, including his second Roland Garros crown. He's chasing his first Cincinnati title after falling to Novak Djokovic in last year's final despite holding championship point.
Alexander Zverev produced a clinical display to demolish Toronto champion Ben Shelton 6-2, 6-2 in just 77 minutes, ending the American's impressive nine-match winning streak. The German was devastating on return, winning 15 of 19 points against Shelton's second serve while controlling baseline exchanges with his penetrating groundstrokes. Shelton managed 12 aces but won just 21% of second-serve points, unable to handle Zverev's relentless pressure. The 2021 Cincinnati champion won 81% of first-serve points and saved the only break point he faced, though he did require medical attention at 2-1 in the second set for breathing difficulties.
Zverev's heritage in Cincinnati is remarkable as he won 16 of his past 18 matches here, reaching the semifinals for the fourth time in his last four appearances. His only defeats in that span came against eventual champions Djokovic (2023) and Sinner (2024), both in semifinals. The German has maintained his perfect 4-0 record against Shelton, having beaten him on all three surfaces this year alone - clay in Munich, grass in Stuttgart, and now hard courts in Cincinnati. Zverev has won five of his last six hard-court matches against top-5 opponents and seeks his first Masters 1000 title since Rome 2022.
The head-to-head between Alcaraz and Zverev stands at 6-5 in Zverev's favor, with the German dominating their hard-court encounters 5-2. Their most recent meeting came at last November's ATP Finals, where Zverev won 7-6(5), 6-4. This shapes up as a genuine 50-50 contest between two players at the peak of their powers. Alcaraz's creativity, movement, and improved net play face Zverev's serving prowess, baseline depth, and superior hard-court record in their rivalry. Both have shown vulnerability this week - Alcaraz with his serving yips and tendency to lose focus, Zverev with his breathing issues - but their quality in crucial moments has been undeniable. Zverev's superior serving statistics this week could prove decisive - he's been broken just twice compared to Alcaraz's seven times, while averaging 78% first-serve points won compared to Alcaraz's 76%.
