The WTA hard court season has concluded, but the transition is swift as the Credit One Charleston Open, the first clay court event of 2025, is scheduled for next week.
Charleston hosts the most prestigious WTA 500 event in North America, a historic tournament that has been held since 1973. It has also been a fan and player favorite, winning the WTA 500 Tournament of the Year award for the last three years in a row. The clay season begins here, but the surface is unique—green clay, which plays differently than the traditional red clay of European courts. Charleston also stands out as the only WTA 500 event with a 48-player main draw, where the top 16 seeds receive a first-round bye.
The draw was revealed on Saturday and is remarkably strong for an event played immediately after a major WTA 1000 tournament. Four of the top 10 players and nine of the top 20 from the latest WTA rankings are among the seeds.
Pegula and Zheng lead the top half
Jessica Pegula is the top seed in Charleston, unless the American decides to withdraw after her demanding run to the final in Miami, where she played a couple of thrilling three-setters to achieve her most significant result of the year. Pegula was a semifinalist in Charleston last year, falling just short against Daria Kasatkina in a decisive tiebreak that determined the finalist. This was her only clay court appearance apart from a run in the Olympics, as injuries ruled her out of most of the European clay season.
If Pegula competes next week, she enters a compelling quarter that includes the always-dangerous Belinda Bencic, who won the Charleston title three years ago. Also in this section is 11th seed Jelena Ostapenko, who has struggled this season apart from an excellent run to the final in WTA 1000 Doha, and the current Charleston titleholder, Danielle Collins.
Qinwen Zheng will play her first clay tournament since winning the Olympic gold medal in August last year. She could face Maria Sakkari in an intriguing second-round encounter if the Greek overcomes wild card recipient Marina Stakusic. Other strong players in this quarter include 9th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, 13th seed Elise Mertens, and 6th seed Diana Shnaider, who is looking to turn around a disappointing season.
Performance charts indicate that Jessica Pegula is by far the best player in the top half based on this year’s form. Elise Mertens has not made any standout runs in big events but has already secured a title, winning the WTA 250 in Singapore. She is known for her consistency, including on clay courts. Meanwhile, Qinwen Zheng has recovered well from a slow start to the season, plagued by injuries, and made two deep runs in the Sunshine Double.
Zheng and Collins were the best clay court performers among the top-half players last year. Zheng’s breakthrough moment came with her Olympic triumph, while Collins had an outstanding clay campaign with 19 wins and just five losses, starting with her dominant title run in Charleston. Apart from Pegula who is a strong favorite, this section contains the pack of players who have the abilities to play strong tennis on clay, but it's difficult to predict the line-up of later stages there, which can be quite surprising one.
Bottom half stacked with strong names
The bottom half appears more stacked with players who have achieved significant success or shown promising form this season. Madison Keys leads this half as the second seed. While she is renowned for her hard-court prowess, Keys is also a proven clay court player. Last season, she won the WTA 500 event in Strasbourg and reached the semifinals in Madrid and the quarterfinals in Rome. The American will aim to bounce back after a disappointing Sunshine Double campaign, where she suffered heavy losses to Aryna Sabalenka and Alexandra Eala - the latter being a particularly shocking upset.
Daria Kasatkina could set up a potential quarterfinal clash with Keys. Kasatkina is going through a significant period in her career, having recently announced a change of nationality. The 5th seed, last year’s Charleston runner-up, will now represent Australia, with the Oz flag appearing next to her name for the first time in Charleston. She has yet to produce a deep run this season, making a strong performance here crucial, especially as she faces the potential loss of ranking points from last year’s final.
Emma Navarro, the 4th seed, is in a highly competitive quarter featuring three Americans. Navarro could meet 15th seed Ashlyn Krueger in a fascinating Round of 16 clash, while 8th seed Amanda Anisimova is her projected quarterfinal opponent. Anisimova has had an impressive season so far, but her current clay-court form remains uncertain, as her last notable results on this surface came in 2022 when she reached the semifinals in Charleston and followed it with quarterfinal runs in Madrid and Rome.
Madison Keys leads both performance heatmaps among players in the bottom half—both for 2025 and last year’s clay season. If she arrives in top form, she should be the favorite in this section. However, all the names mentioned above have the potential for deep runs, making the bottom half appear stronger on paper than the top half.
