The stakes couldn't be higher at the 2025 US Open, where Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz arrive fresh from their epic battles in the last two Grand Slam finals. After Alcaraz's legendary five-set comeback victory at Roland Garros - one of the greatest matches in tennis history - and Sinner's dominant Wimbledon triumph, the world's top two players are locked in a fascinating duel for the year-end No. 1 ranking. With Sinner defending his 2024 US Open title points, Alcaraz virtually leads by just 60 points when accounting for the drop - though the Spaniard holds a commanding lead in the ATP Race. The draw has set up perfectly for another potential championship showdown, but with Alcaraz and Djokovic on a semifinal collision course in the bottom half, nothing is guaranteed in what promises to be one of the most dramatic US Opens in recent memory. The only concern is Sinner's readiness to compete, related to his health issues which prevented him from showing up against Alcaraz in the final match in Cincinnati on Monday, where the Italian pulled out after losing the first 5 games while feeling unwell, although he looked fine during Thursday's practice sessions on the venue.
Quarter 1: Sinner's Title Defense Begins with Tricky Tests
Jannik Sinner enters as the clear favorite to emerge from his quarter. His performance in Cincinnati was flawless up until the ill-fated final match. He extended his streak of consecutive wins on hard courts to 24 before Monday, and his first outing on hard courts since winning the Australian Open was truly comprehensive. Sinner did not lose a set during the whole week in Cincy and was crushing his opponents - the best example of this was his demolishing victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals. His ultimate game and statistical dominance are visible across multiple metrics compared to the opponents from the first quarter. The world No. 1 begins against Czech Vit Kopriva; however, quite a danger lurks as early as the second round where Alexei Popyrin awaits - the Australian who won the ATP 1000 in Montreal this year, was able to stun Djokovic here in Flushing Meadows last year, and curiously won the only encounter against Sinner in their 2021 Madrid meeting.
Popyrin dropped down to 37th place in the rankings, losing his seeding spot, but he is possibly one of the most dangerous opponents to face in the early rounds, especially if Sinner's fitness is questionable. The further path also promises a showdown, as Denis Shapovalov looms in the third round, and while the Canadian's statistics show volatility in his serving game, his explosive lefty style and comfort on these courts could test Sinner's fitness. Tommy Paul presents an intriguing round of 16 possibility - the American's return game has been exceptional this season, a weapon that could extend rallies and expose any possible defects in the game of the world number one.
Jack Draper is another top-ranked player in this section, being the fifth seed. He returns after an absence since Wimbledon caused by injury. The Briton starts against one of the qualifiers but could meet Gabriel Diallo in the third round after the Canadian's promising performance in two recent ATP 1000 events. Lorenzo Musetti is the 10th seed - a potential upset alert as the superior clay court specialist still struggles on hard courts and faces the serve-bombing Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round.
The quarter's dark horses include Marton Fucsovics, whose strong return game could trouble higher seeds, and the ever-dangerous Alexander Bublik, who defeated Sinner in Halle earlier this year. If the world number one is fit enough, he should face no harm in this quarter, but if he isn't at 100%, this section could open up dramatically with chances for some unusual names to make a very deep run.
Quarter 2: Zverev's Slam Quest Meets De Minaur's Consistency
Alexander Zverev's partnership with Toni Nadal has brought renewed focus to his Grand Slam pursuit, and the German enters this quarter as the clear favorite. The third seed's serve remains his biggest weapon - he's holding at 89% of service games won this season - but questions persist about his mental fortitude in best-of-five matches, especially at the venue where he infamously squandered a two-set lead in the 2020 final.
Zverev opens against Alejandro Tabilo before a potential second-round meeting with Roberto Bautista Agut. The real tests begin in round three against either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Gael Monfils. Auger-Aliassime has rediscovered his form at the start of 2025, reaching the final and semifinal in Middle East Swing ATP 1000s and being a quarterfinalist in Cincinnati one week ago despite a beatdown from Sinner in the last match. Monfils, despite his veteran status, can still produce magic on his day. The projected fourth-round clash with Andrey Rublev could be pivotal - the Russian's powerful baseline game matches up well against Zverev, though his tendency to implode mentally in crucial moments remains.
Alex de Minaur anchors this section with remarkable consistency throughout this year, which has brought him a strong position in the top 10 of the rankings and success in the form of winning the ATP 500 in Washington. The Australian's exceptional return game and court coverage make him a nightmare matchup for big servers. His quarterfinal run here last year proved he belongs on this stage, and his recent form suggests he's ready to go deeper. The Demon opens against compatriot Christopher O'Connell before potentially facing Stefanos Tsitsipas in round three - a matchup that looks spicy on paper; however, the Greek is searching to get back on track, for example, facing an early exit in ATP 250 Winston-Salem this week against Bu Yunchaokete.
Karen Khachanov lurks as a dangerous contender, with his powerful game and Grand Slam pedigree making him capable of defeating anyone on his day. He showed his capabilities for deep runs, being a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and runner-up at ATP 1000 Toronto. Khachanov can set up a hit battle in the Round of 16 against De Minaur. The quarter's data reveals fascinating contrasts - Zverev's serving dominance versus De Minaur's return excellence, setting up a potential quarterfinal that could hinge on who controls the patterns of play. A potential clash between Zverev and Khachanov would also be a tasteful one, with the German seeking revenge for losing to Khachanov in the latest semifinal in Toronto.
Quarter 3: Djokovic vs Fritz - The Stage is Set for History
Novak Djokovic's placement as seventh seed has created the draw's most intriguing storyline. The 24-time Grand Slam champion maintains elite statistics across virtually every category, but the part-time schedule, the five-week layoff since Wimbledon, and the injury issues nagging the grand champion in London raise questions about match sharpness. His first-round opponent, 19-year-old Learner Tien, represents the hungry next generation eager to make a statement against aging legends and is already efficient in translating his rising abilities to win matches at the highest level.
The Serbian's projected path is littered with American landmines, with another home representative Alex Michelsen - quarterfinalist of the Toronto Masters - possibly waiting in round three. This challenge can be followed by a clash with Holger Rune in the round of 16. Rune has pushed Djokovic to the limit in their five previous meetings (Djokovic leads 3-2), with their matches consistently requiring decisive sets. Frances Tiafoe lurks as another threat - the American has struggled with injuries recently but always elevates his game at Flushing Meadows, where he's reached the semifinals twice in the last three years.
Taylor Fritz emerges from the data as a player in top and very consistent form. The fourth seed's 15-2 record since June, including titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne on grass, reflects dramatic improvements in his service games and clutch play. His statistics show excellence in serving and dominance ratio (calculated from the division of breakpoints created and faced). Fritz is the US number one; however, he lost the prestigious semifinal battle against Shelton in Toronto, so the runner-up from last year will surely want to prove himself to be the best ace in the pack for the home crowd again. The projected Fritz-Djokovic quarterfinal would be their 11th meeting, with Djokovic holding a perfect 10-0 record. Their last meeting happened in Shanghai in the fall of 2024; four recent matches happened on hard courts, and Fritz managed to take just one set from those.
This quarter is a mix of two strong favorites, aspiring youngsters, and some known names who struggle to show their peak performance throughout the whole season. Djokovic will be the favorite there; however, it's Fritz who guarantees more confidence in terms of passing the first few hurdles on track without any special harm. Djokovic has a challenging draw from the start, but if he prevails in those tests, he can be a serious threat to the other bottom-half big guns, with every opportunity like this possibly being a swan song for the 38-year-old champ.
Quarter 4: Alcaraz's Treacherous Path Through American Hopes
Carlos Alcaraz arrives in New York in the heat of battle with Sinner, fresh from his Cincinnati triumph and leading the ATP Race by a commanding margin. The Spaniard's comprehensive excellence is evident in the stats - his return game, court coverage, and mental toughness have all reached new heights. His performance in Cincinnati was not perfect from the start - the world number two showed some vulnerabilities and visible rust in the opening rounds, but it was finally he who prevailed to clinch the title in unusual circumstances. However, his draw presents immediate challenges that could derail his championship aspirations.
The first-round matchup against Reilly Opelka is exactly the type of banana peel that haunts top seeds' nightmares. The 6'11" American's serve is a legitimate weapon - capable of 30+ aces per match - and on these fast courts, even Alcaraz's legendary return game can be neutralized. Opelka's recent injury comeback adds unpredictability to an already dangerous opponent. He was also able to upset De Minaur in the opening stages in Cincinnati.
Should Alcaraz navigate the early rounds, a round of 16 clash with Daniil Medvedev looms large. The former US Open champion faces qualifier Benjamin Bonzi first - notably, Bonzi has beaten Medvedev in both their previous Grand Slam meetings. Even if Medvedev advances, his recent form has been concerning, with visible frustration during practice sessions, repetitive upsets (like losing to Adam Walton in the second round in Cincy), and a slow but constant decline in the rankings. The Russian's defensive style no longer troubles the elite as it once did.
The quarter's X-factor is sixth seed Ben Shelton, who arrives with massive momentum after his Toronto Masters triumph. The American has transformed his return game while maintaining his thunderous serve - he's holding at 88% of service games won this season. Shelton's path includes Pablo Carreño Busta in round two and potentially Casper Ruud in the round of 16, who is not playing his peak tennis this year but was the runner-up here in 2022. An Alcaraz-Shelton quarterfinal would be electric - the Spaniard's all-court brilliance against American power with 23,000 fans creating a cauldron atmosphere in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Jiri Lehecka represent potential spoilers, with Lehecka's improving hard-court game making him particularly dangerous in the early rounds. Davidovich Fokina has also stepped up to play some good moments in ATP 500 and ATP 1000 events this year; however, his fitness raises question marks as his two last matches ended with withdrawals.
The Tournament Picture
The 2025 US Open men's draw has delivered everything tennis fans could hope for: compelling storylines, potential upset paths, American resurgence, and the promise of historic matches in the final stages. With $5 million awaiting the champion and critical ranking points at stake in the Sinner-Alcaraz year-end No. 1 race, and all the ongoing stories aforementioned in the breakdown of each quarter, the stakes couldn't be higher as the season's final Grand Slam begins Sunday at Flushing Meadows. Don't forget to follow the tournament together with TennisRatio.com for daily analysis, previews, and as always - plenty of interesting data behind the on-court events.