Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships is one of two ATP 500 events this week, being featured by the world number one and recent US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz alongside the world number five Taylor Fritz as two top seeds and favorites to succeed in their first outing in the Asian hard courts swing.
The parallel ATP 500 tournament is held in Beijing with a stacked field containing 10 out of top 20. You can read the full preview and draw analysis of China Open here. Let's dive into the breakdown of the main draw from Tokyo before the on-court action which starts on Wednesday.
Top half with one strong favorite
Carlos Alcaraz leads the top half of the draw, being obviously a strong favorite of the whole tournament, coming to Tokyo with an ongoing streak of 13 consecutive wins achieved in Cincinnati and US Open. The Spaniard lost just 4 out of 32 matches played on hard this season, all during quite a slow start of the season as for his standards. Alcaraz showing such stellar performance as in Flushing Meadows 3 weeks ago should not be afraid of anyone, however his path in the draw looks quite formidable.
Alcaraz will start his Tokyo campaign from a match against Sebastian Baez. The first seeded player to meet in a possible quarterfinals match-up is Frances Tiafoe. The American does not present his best form this year, especially currently with the series of 3 consecutive losses in important events. Tiafoe got upset in the third round of US Open and lost both singles matches in the Davis Cup qualifiers tie against Czechia, which mostly contributed to the surprising elimination of the US team before the finals event. The top section of the quarter consists of two players who succeeded in this week's ATP 250 tournament in Chengdu - Alejandro Tabilo who made it into the final as a qualifier and semifinalist Brandon Nakashima.
The second quarter is led by 4th seed Casper Ruud and 7th seed Denis Shapovalov. The Norwegian plays a disappointing season with just 16 wins in 29 matches played on hard courts including the recent early exits in the round of 64 of both Cincinnati and US Open. The Canadian plays a much better season with two titles earned in Dallas and Los Cabos. His recent run in US Open got highlighted by quite a competitive match played against Jannik Sinner, even though Shapovalov lost in 4 sets.
Fritz, Machac and Rune in stacked bottom half
Taylor Fritz leads the bottom half with quite a more challenging draw than Alcaraz. Fritz starts against the world number 35 Gabriel Diallo. Both have met in the round of 32 of ATP 1000 in Toronto in August, when Fritz comfortably won by 6-4 6-2. However, a clash with the 5th seed Tomas Machac awaits as a potential hit of the projected quarterfinals. The world number 22 has a good record of 16 wins in 24 matches played on hard including the title in Acapulco in March. Machac looks like the third best performing player on hard courts in the whole draw due to TennisRatio Power Index which makes the last quarter quite a tricky one for Fritz, who despite being a step ahead of all the other competitors apart from Alcaraz, still seeks his first hard courts title in 2025.
Holger Rune and Ugo Humbert are another seeds in this half, featuring the third quarter which looks like quite an open one. Rune performed well in ATP 1000 Masters events, being a finalist in Indian Wells and a runner-up in Cincinnati, however lacked the consistency throughout the whole year. Rune looks forward to coming back to form from the spring, when he followed the final in California with a surprising title in ATP 500 Barcelona, upsetting Alcaraz in the final. Humbert started the season on the front foot, winning in Marseille in February, but did not follow that success with quite miserable performances in recent months. Rune should be a favorite of this quarter and potential Fritz's opponent in the projected semifinals as the third seed.
