For the first time in the Open Era, two players will meet in three consecutive Grand Slam finals within a single season. When Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz step onto Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday afternoon, they won't just be playing for the US Open title – they'll be competing for the world No. 1 ranking as well. The Italian and Spaniard have monopolized the majors in 2025, winning all of the majors this season and splitting the the third consecutive final after Roland Garros and Wimbledon. The semifinals did not bring as much heat as expected, especially the Alcaraz vs Djokovic awaited clash - but the big final on Flushing Meadows surely promises to be a monumental one.
Alcaraz's Flawless March
Carlos Alcaraz has been nothing short of spectacular in New York, becoming just the fifth man since 2000 to reach a US Open final without dropping a set. His semifinal dismantling of Novak Djokovic – 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-2 – served a statement of generational change. The Spaniard's 84% first-serve points won and 31 winners to 30 unforced errors reflected a level of controlled aggression that left even the 24-time Grand Slam champion searching for answers. The match was most competitive in second set, when Djokovic started with an early break and 3-0 lead. That was the only concerning point for Alcaraz, but he found the proper gears when needed, forcing a tiebreak where he was clutch in the decisive points. By the third set, with Djokovic requiring shoulder treatment and visibly fatigued, Alcaraz's youth and explosiveness had taken full control. The overview of this tie looked like it was fully on Alcaraz's racquet, especially while the match progressed to it's ending stages. Alcaraz fired 10 winners to just 3 unforced errors in third set, while Djokovic managed to produce just 2 winners, committed 7 unforced errors and made no breakpoints in final set. The overall of 15-30 between winners and errors, just 66% on first serve and barely threat on return (16% on first return points) was surely nothing close to be enough for the competitive battle against Alcaraz this time. That concludes a perfect road to the final for the Spaniard ho is yet to lose a set in this tournament after 6 matches played including the tie against the most glamorous opponent possible apart from his final's rival.
The Italian's Path to Defending Glory
Jannik Sinner arrived at his fifth consecutive Grand Slam final with the precision of a Swiss watch, though his semifinal against Felix Auger-Aliassime proved more challenging than the 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 scoreline suggests. The defending champion showcased remarkable mental fortitude, saving nine of ten break points. Despite requiring medical treatment for an abdominal issue after dropping the second set, Sinner's composure never wavered – he committed just four unforced errors in the crucial third set while finding his range with 84% of first serves won throughout the match. However, it was a dignified farewell of Auger-Aliassime with the tournament where he proved to be a giant-killer and where he equalized his best run from 2021 in Grand Slam's career. Sinner has needed to face 28 breakpoints on serve, but was clinical as always clearing 21 of those. The Italian produced 7 pressure points more. The serving performance of FAA was not consistent enough though - he won 94% of first serve in second set which ended up on his account, but also recorded the values of 53%, 56% and 78% in lost sets. It was also the first match in this tournament, when the Canadian did not scored the double digit of aces (9 this time).
Road to the Final Breakdown
As it was said multiple times during this tournament, Sinner's key to hold the road into the final unscratched was laying in his mental during clutch moments. That's reflected in the excellent rates of saving breakpoints (87% to 77% of Alcaraz) during this tournament, and also in the whole season on hard courts - 77% on the course of the whole 2025 is an extraordinary stat which makes Alcaraz's 63% quite shy despite still being a good record. The agressiveness and efficiency during return is also Sinner's excellence - 64% of 2nd return points in US Open and 61% on hard courts in 2025. This will be a battling contrary to Alcaraz's perfection on serve - he has lost just 2 service games on courts of whole the tournament. - 72 out of 74 service games won (97.6%).
That is also displayed in the pressure points breakdown. Alcaraz has needed to play just 0.56 pressure points on serve per game in that fortnight, while Sinner allowed his opponents the 1.26 pressure points on average - much higher, and Alcaraz was also more efficient in winning those points (80.9% to 75.7%). Interestingly, both were putting the same immense pressure on return - 2.14 points on average, but Sinner won 8% more of those (51.1% to 43.9%).
The Rivalry's Evolution
Their head-to-head stands at 9-7 in Alcaraz's favor, but the narrative has shifted dramatically in 2025. After Alcaraz claimed victories in Rome and a five-set epic at Roland Garros – where he saved three championship points – Sinner struck back at Wimbledon with a clinical four-set victory. That triumph ended a five-match losing streak against the Spaniard and proved the Italian could prevail on surfaces beyond his beloved hard courts. Importantly, Alcaraz leads 4-1 in finals between them, though Sinner's Wimbledon breakthrough suggests that psychological barrier has been breached.
The statistical matchup reveals fascinating contrasts. Sinner's 34-1 record at majors since last year's US Open triumph speaks to unprecedented consistency, with his only loss coming to Alcaraz in Paris. Meanwhile, Alcaraz's ability to elevate in the sport's biggest moments – he's won all six of his previous Grand Slam finals – gives him a clutch factor few can match. On hard courts specifically, Alcaraz holds a 5-2 edge in their rivalry, including their legendary 2022 US Open quarterfinal that lasted over five hours and effectively launched their rivalry into the stratosphere.
What's at Stake
Beyond the trophy itself, Sunday's final carries enormous implications. For Sinner, a victory would make him the first man since Roger Federer (2004-08) to successfully defend a US Open title and complete a remarkable feat of winning both the Australian Open and US Open in consecutive years. He would also secure his position atop the rankings heading into the Asian swing and become just the fourth man in the Open Era to win three Grand Slam titles in a season while reaching all four finals.
Alcaraz seeks his own slice of history. A victory would give him his sixth major title at just 22 years old and see him reclaim the world No. 1 ranking for the first time since September 2023. Perhaps more significantly, it would cement a second consecutive calendar-year Grand Slam shutout between him and Sinner – an achievement that would officially herald their era's arrival. The Spaniard's pursuit of revenge after Wimbledon adds another layer of intrigue to an already compelling narrative.