World No. 2 Jannik Sinner leads a star-studded Thursday at the Australian Open as second-round is about to conclude tomorrow in Melbourne. The defending champion faces local hope James Duckworth in what should be a routine passage, while No. 5 Lorenzo Musetti takes on fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego in an intriguing all-Italian clash. Novak Djokovic returns to action against qualifier Francesco Maestrelli, while former world No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas faces a tricky test against rising star Tomas Machac.
Defending champion cruises forward
Jannik Sinner should have little trouble advancing past James Duckworth in their second-round encounter, though the Australian will have crowd support on his side. Sinner leads their head-to-head 2-1, including a straight-sets victory in their most recent meeting in Sofia back in 2021.
The statistics tell the story of two players operating on completely different levels. Sinner has been nearly unstoppable on hard courts over the past 12 months, posting a remarkable 37-3 record with a perfect 10-0 tiebreak record. His serve pressure numbers are exceptional - saving 72.6% of break points faced while converting 46.3% of his own opportunities. Currently riding a 16-match winning streak, the Italian has won his last 10 matches without dropping a single one.
Duckworth, ranked 88th in the world, has struggled for consistency with a 7-7 hard court record over the past year. While he serves well when ahead, winning 75% of first serve points, his return game lacks the penetration needed to trouble elite players like Sinner. The 32-year-old converted just 28% of his break point chances over the past 12 months, a statistic that will need dramatic improvement against one of the tour's best defenders.
Italian derby with contrasting fortunes
The battle between Lorenzo Musetti and Lorenzo Sonego promises to be one of Thursday's most competitive affairs. Their head-to-head stands at 1-1, with Sonego winning their most recent encounter in Paris last October, giving the underdog confidence heading into this match.
Musetti enters as the heavy favorite, ranked 35 spots higher at No. 5 in the world, but his hard court form over the past year has been inconsistent. The 22-year-old posted a 27-16 record on the surface, though his tiebreak struggles are concerning - managing just a 37.5% success rate in deciding sets. His return game has been solid, particularly against second serves where he wins 52.7% of points.
Sonego arrives in better recent form despite his lower ranking, winning seven of his last 10 matches. The 29-year-old's serve has been his primary weapon, winning 73.4% of first serve points and averaging 6.5 aces per match. His break point defense has also improved, saving 64% of opportunities faced. With both players sharing identical tiebreak records, this match could easily go the distance.
Machac tests struggling Tsitsipas
Tomas Machac faces his biggest opportunity of the tournament against former world No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Czech player, currently on a six-match winning streak, has been the better performer on hard courts over the past year with a 65.5% win rate compared to Tsitsipas's 64%. Machac's break point conversion rate of 46% significantly exceeds the Greek's 32.6%, suggesting he could capitalize if given opportunities.
Clay courters clash on hard courts
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi renew their rivalry in what should be a fascinating encounter between two clay court specialists. Baez leads their head-to-head 4-2 from six previous meetings, though Darderi won their most recent clash in Bastad last July. On hard courts, both have struggled for consistency, with Baez holding a slight edge at 50% compared to Darderi's 38.1% win rate over the past year.
Ruud aims to extend dominance over Munar
Casper Ruud holds a commanding 6-1 head-to-head advantage over Jaume Munar, including victories in their last four encounters. The Norwegian's superior hard court record (63.6% vs 58.3%) and excellent tiebreak form (61.5% success rate) should see him through, especially given Munar's poor tiebreak record of just 20% over the past 12 months.
Djokovic returns against Italian qualifier
American Taylor Fritz meets Czech Vit Kopriva in their first encounter. Fritz's powerful serve, averaging 12.4 aces per match, should give him the edge, though his recent form has been patchy with just four wins in his last 10 matches. Kopriva, ranked 101st, has shown resilience with six wins in his last 10 outings despite limited hard court success.
Shapovalov favored in veteran showdown
Denis Shapovalov leads his head-to-head with Marin Cilic 3-2, including a perfect 3-1 record on hard courts. The Canadian's superior return game and break point conversion rate of 49.1% should prove decisive against the 36-year-old Croatian, who has managed just a 43.8% win rate on hard courts over the past year despite his improved recent form.
Thursday's action will significantly shape the second week draw, with several seeded players facing genuine tests. Sinner and Djokovic should advance comfortably, but upsets could be on the cards in the Italian derby and the Machac-Tsitsipas encounter. The day's results will provide crucial insight into which contenders are genuinely ready for a deep Melbourne run.