The Miami Open quarterfinals delivered the biggest sensation of the WTA season and undoubtedly one of the most significant upsets in recent years. Alexandra Eala, ranked 140th, who had never won a WTA 1000-level match before this event, eliminated Iga Swiatek in a shocking straight-sets victory, 6-2, 7-5.
Fairytale story of the underdog
Eala's remarkable run has the potential to become historic, as she emerges as an underdog making her way to the biggest stage. The 19-year-old, who received a wild card entry into the tournament, has now reached the semifinals after producing four consecutive upsets, each more surprising than the last. Beyond the disparity in rankings and experience, it's worth noting that Eala defeated three Grand Slam champions in three consecutive matches, without dropping a single set.
The match against Swiatek was unusual. Eala stepped onto the court with a visible bandage on her thigh, but it was the Pole who seemed uncomfortable with her game from the start. She struggled to find answers to Eala's exceptionally well-executed forehands and aggressive yet efficient returns, combined with impressive all-around defensive play. Swiatek never gained control at any stage and was unable to exploit Eala’s still-weak serving abilities. Despite a few high-quality rallies, she ultimately ran out of solutions. The stats reflect this struggle: although Eala won just 52% of her first-serve points, she dominated on return, winning 53% of Swiatek's first serves and 76% on second-serve returns. It was a scrappy match, with 53 pressure points in short distance match (29 on Swiatek's serve, 24 on Eala's), but the Filipina executed her game plan perfectly and capitalized on her opportunities.
Beyond her impressive technical display, Eala demonstrated extraordinary mental resilience - an attribute already evident in her previous upset victories. The youngster maintained her level while facing the prospect of a massive win, holding her nerve after securing the first set and leading in the second. Having stunned the tennis world, she can no longer be underestimated in the later stages of this tournament.
Pegula comes out on top of quality spectacle
Jessica Pegula will be Eala’s semifinal opponent after winning a high-quality battle against Emma Raducanu. The American prevailed in three sets, 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-4. The match showcased strong performances from both players. Raducanu fought back from a set down to force a decider, despite missing earlier chances to close out the second set while leading with multiple breaks. Pegula took control of the third set from the start and held onto her lead until the end. Both players displayed clean hitting, with positive winner-to-unforced-error ratios. Pegula recorded an impressive 48 winners to just 27 unforced errors, while Raducanu, despite her defeat, produced a commendable 30 winners to just 18 errors. This marks Pegula’s first big-event semifinal of 2025. Meanwhile, Raducanu can take pride in her run to the quarterfinals, returning to the top 50 and losing in a manner that reflects her improving form.
Pegula is the clear favorite heading into her clash against Eala, but this tournament’s unpredictable nature means nothing is guaranteed. The odds are more cautious now, considering Eala’s ability to upset top opponents. Before her matches against Swiatek and Keys, she was rated as an underdog with odds around 9.0. Ahead of the semifinals, Pegula’s odds stand around 1.25, while Eala’s have shortened to below 4.0. Here’s a breakdown of their 2025 form and Miami performances so far.
No surprises in top half's quarters
In the top half of the Miami draw, Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini secured their places in the semifinals with routine wins as strong pre-match favorites. Sabalenka continued her dominance over players who have historically struggled against her. After defeating Danielle Collins for the seventh time in seven meetings, she extended her perfect record against Qinwen Zheng, securing her sixth win in as many encounters. Although the scoreline of 6-2, 7-5 suggests a relatively comfortable victory, Zheng put significant pressure on the world number one, generating 11 breakpoints and 24 pressure points. Sabalenka efficiently defused most of the danger but still dropped four service games. The second set turned into a scrappy battle, featuring six consecutive breaks. The turning point came when Sabalenka, already trailing 3-4, saved three break points at 0-40 before winning five straight points to hold serve. This critical moment denied Zheng the chance to serve for the set and moving the settlement into decider, shifting momentum in Sabalenka’s favor. Though not a flawless performance, she delivered when it mattered most, earning her first-ever Miami semifinal appearance.
Paolini is enjoying her breakthrough week of the season. Despite struggling to win three consecutive matches in 2025 despite high seedings, the Italian bounced back impressively, reaching the semifinals of a WTA 1000 event with a dominant 6-3, 6-2 victory over Magda Linette. The Pole, who stunned Coco Gauff in the Round of 16, had no answers against Paolini’s solid all-around performance. The world number seven will be the underdog in her upcoming clash with Sabalenka, but their head-to-head record is not one-sided. Sabalenka leads 3-2, but Paolini's last win came in Indian Wells 2022. Since then, they have met twice, with Sabalenka winning both times in straight sets, including their most recent encounter at the 2024 WTA Finals in November.
