The next few weeks will feature top-class tennis action in the USA, starting with the first leg of the legendary Sunshine Double, which kicks off today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. With the main draw now finalized—including the names of qualifiers—it's the perfect time to break down the draw, highlighting intriguing matchups and the potential hierarchy in each quarter. The draw consists of 96 players, with the top 32 seeds receiving a first-round bye and beginning their campaigns on Friday and Saturday.
First Quarter – A Challenging Start for Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka leads the first quarter as the world No. 1. The ranking leader will look to bounce back after a disappointing Middle East swing, which fell short of expectations for this year’s Australian Open runner-up. Sabalenka could face one of the standout second-round clashes against McCartney Kessler. The American, a finalist at the WTA 250 ATX Open last week, has been in excellent form this season, with a title in Hobart already under her belt. According to the TennisRatio Power Index - a standardized ratio of all relevant data factors - Kessler is among the top three players in this quarter, alongside Sabalenka, Daria Kasatkina, and Ekaterina Alexandrova. Jasmine Paolini is also not to write-off, as she is the 6th seed of the tournament and potential Sabalenka's quarterfinal opponent, having some formidable path from the start.
Second Quarter – The Champions’ Lodge
Coco Gauff headlines the second quarter and, like Sabalenka, is seeking a return to form after a disappointing February. The American will aim to replicate her strong start to the season, where she won nine consecutive matches in Australia. Gauff could face an exciting second-round clash with Emma Raducanu, but despite the media attention surrounding both players, they are not the highest-ranked in this section in terms of recent performance metrics.
Madison Keys returns to competition after a break due to a hamstring injury. The Australian Open champion could face a challenging opener against Anastasia Potapova, should the Russian overcome Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the first round. Potapova, meanwhile, has already claimed a title this year, winning the WTA 250 in Cluj.
This quarter is packed with titleholders from the 2025 season - Amanda Anisimova won the WTA 1000 in Doha, while Belinda Bencic celebrated her comeback with a WTA 500 victory in Abu Dhabi. If Bencic defeats Tatjana Maria in the opening round, she could set up a thrilling second-round encounter with Anisimova. Other notable contenders include Elise Mertens, who triumphed at the WTA 250 in Singapore. Emma Navarro is last week's champion from Merida. Maya Joint is one of last week’s revelations from this event as she recently became just the second teenager in the current top 100 rankings.
Third Quarter – Big Hitters and Strong Performers
This section is as exciting as the second quarter. Mirra Andreeva arrives in California on a hot streak, making her debut as a top-10 player following her triumph in Dubai. She could face an enticing second-round matchup against Petra Kvitova, who returns from maternity leave as a wildcard entrant and will open her campaign against Varvara Gracheva.
Naomi Osaka is another player to watch. Her performances during the Australian swing were promising, positioning her among the top performers in early-season rankings. Osaka could face Clara Tauson in the second round - another rising young player in excellent form this year, the finalist of the previous WTA 1000 event in Dubai.
Meanwhile, the 2023 champion - Elena Rybakina has displayed consistency this season, remaining solid but still awaiting a true breakthrough result. Jessica Pegula leads this quarter as the top seed, fresh off a victorious run at the WTA 250 in Texas last week. Pegula is one of the top performing Americans, who along to the leading pack in the WTA field since the start of the year. Her path to the quarterfinals could include a compelling clash with Rybakina. Knowing their both level of consistency and very good history of results on the Sunshine Double grounds, their quarterfinal's hit clash is much more than likely.
Fourth Quarter – Swiatek’s Title Defense
Iga Swiatek has set her own standard at such a high level that even a season featuring an Australian Open semifinal, plus deep runs in the Middle East WTA 1000 events, is viewed as somewhat underwhelming. However, the Pole has laid a solid foundation heading into a stretch of the season where she has traditionally thrived. As the defending champion, Swiatek is the clear favorite in the fourth quarter.
This section also features several players who have shown promising form this year, including Karolina Muchova, the ever-consistent Linda Noskova, and notable names such as Marta Kostyuk and Ons Jabeur. Jabeur could set up an intriguing matchup with Dayana Yastremska, as both are highly ranked in performance metrics.
Qinwen Zheng, looking to regain momentum after a slow start to the season, could meet Victoria Azarenka in the second round—one of the weekend’s most anticipated matchups. Another key storyline is Paula Badosa’s form. The Spaniard was trending upward this year but was recently hampered by recurring back injury issues in Mexico last week.
With a star-studded draw and compelling storylines throughout, Indian Wells promises an electrifying start to this year’s Sunshine Double. Let’s follow the news and analysis on TennisRatio throughout whole the event in following days.
