Merida Open is the biggest event of the week in the WTA calendar, serving as a prelude to the highly anticipated Indian Wells tournament in a few days. The WTA 500 event in Mexico has already delivered numerous upsets, with six out of eight seeds eliminated before the quarterfinals. However, the two biggest names, Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa, remain in contention as they look strong heading into the decisive weekend. Let’s preview Friday’s quarterfinal matchups.

Emma Navarro (1) vs. Zeynep Sonmez

This year so far gives some mixed feelings about performance of the American.. While this marks her third quarterfinal of the year, her on-court displays haven’t been particularly dominant, which is reflected in key metrics such as dominance ratios and serve-and-return statistics. Her Australian Open run has been the highlight of her season so far, where she battled through four grueling three-setters to reach the quarterfinals. In Merida, however, she had a much smoother start, cruising past Petra Martic 6-1, 6-2 in what was her most convincing victory of the year to date.

Sonmez is enjoying the best phase of her career. Coming into Mexico ranked a career-high No. 88, she has already pulled off two notable upsets. The Turkish player shocked Maria Sakkari in the first round, winning 7-5, 6-2, despite being rated a 3.08 underdog before the match. Sonmez was the better player throughout, further confirming the ongoing decline of the former long-time top-10 player. She followed that up with an even more dominant 6-3, 6-1 victory over Magda Linette. Another upset against the tournament’s top seed cannot be ruled out.

Paula Badosa (2) vs. Daria Saville

Badosa is making the most of her great form and, most importantly, her good health in 2025. After struggling with multiple injuries in 2023 and questioning the future of her career, she finally broke through in the second half of 2024. Now, she is embracing a busy and demanding schedule. Having played the full Middle East swing in February, Merida serves as a transition event before she heads into Indian Wells, Miami, and Charleston in the coming weeks. In her opening match, she comfortably defeated Jacqueline Cristian 6-2, 6-1, avoiding the usual challenges posed by the Romanian’s tricky playing style.

For Saville, 2024 has been a difficult season, with most of her recent match wins coming at the ITF level. However, her campaign in Merida has been a breakthrough, marking her best performance in months. The Australian came through qualifying and then produced two impressive upsets in the main draw. Her biggest win came against Marta Kostyuk in the first round, where she edged out the Ukrainian 6-4, 7-6(6), despite being a 3.73 pre-match underdog—the highest upset odds recorded in Merida so far. She then backed it up with a three-set win over Anhelina Kalinina. However, facing Badosa presents an even tougher challenge, making another upset seem unlikely.

Maya Joint vs. Elina Avanesyan

The 18-year-old Australian is one of the most exciting young players on tour, joining Mirra Andreeva as the second teenager to break into the WTA top 100. Her superb run in Merida follows an earlier semifinal appearance in Hobart, proving her consistency. Starting from the qualifying rounds, Joint has secured four consecutive straight-set wins, never conceding more than three games in a set. The highlight of her run was her dominant 6-1, 6-2 victory over top-20 player Donna Vekic. Vekic’s poor form continues, as she has now lost seven of her ten matches in 2025, including four straight defeats - a worrying sign ahead of her upcoming ranking defense.

Joint’s quarterfinal opponent, Elina Avanesyan, made headlines by eliminating Magdalena Frech, the defending champion from the last WTA 500 event in Mexico. The Armenian battled through a tough three-set match in the opening round to send Frech packing. There is no clear favorite in this matchup, but Joint looks like being on a front foot with her serving abilities, which can give her advantage in this match-up, which will emerge the surprising WTA 500 semifinalist.

Rebecca Sramkova vs. Emiliana Arango

Sramkova was one of the breakthrough players of late 2024, but her momentum did not initially carry over into 2025. However, she appears to be regaining form in Merida. The Slovakian has yet to drop a set, opening with a 6-3, 6-1 win over Lulu Sun before shocking third seed Beatriz Haddad Maia 7-6(8), 6-3. Haddad Maia’s struggles continue, as she has now suffered her seventh loss in nine matches this season, with six of those defeats coming in her opening match of a tournament.

Arango has had an unusual path to the quarterfinals. After defeating Maria Lourdes Carle in the final round of qualifying, she faced Carle again just two days later in the main draw, as the Argentine secured a lucky loser spot. Their second meeting was less competitive, with Arango winning 6-2, 6-3. The Colombian then took down Francesca Jones in the round of 16, securing her place in the quarterfinals - an impressive feat for the world No. 133. Beating Sramkova would be an upset on paper, but the stats from this year show, that Arango is able to create some immense threat on return - much more than Sramkova did in her current performances. The outcome of this pairing can be a surprising one.