Monday's Round of 16 matches at the WTA 1000 Miami Open finalized the quarterfinal lineup, featuring a mix of top contenders and surprising names. The draw is shaping up in a way that promises the possibility of a Saturday final between the world's top two players. However, both halves include names capable of causing upsets.
Here is a breakdown of the upcoming quarterfinal matchups, with statistical comparisons presented in charts.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Qinwen Zheng (9)
The world number one emerged victorious in the most prestigious Round of 16 encounter, defeating last year's Miami Open champion, Danielle Collins. Sabalenka was the strong favorite before the match, considering her dominant head-to-head record (now 7-0 after Monday's match) and Collins’ lower level of play compared to last year's form, which temporarily brought her back into the top 10.
Sabalenka did not need to click the highest gear in this match, but put the performance which was enough to control both the sets from start to finish. Collins was trying to take up the challenge, being even quite more aggresive than her superior opponent, but was clearly not able to find the solution for the strike of Sabalenka's shots. When the world number one hit the ball clearly with her natural power, the Collins' responses have mainly landed wide out of the court in first set. The second one delivered some good quality from both sides - including some great backhand winners from both sides. Apart from the most usual direct solutions ending up in less than 5 shots during the point, there were also a few jaw-dropping rallies, being the decoration of this match. Despite losing the serve in opening game of second set, Collins tried to stay in contact and denied the easy beatdown. Sabalenka has needed to stay focused to not slip away the expected victory and made took care of this till the end, although Collins looked like catching up some wind in her sails in later phases of second set. This was enough to make the match competitive, but not to make any threat on Sabalenka who won it by 6-4 6-4. Collins losts 880 points from the tally won in Miami Open last year, dropping out from top 20 with plenty of points still to defend in a few of next weeks.
Qinwen Zheng is regaining form after a slow start to the season, reaching the quarterfinals in both Indian Wells and Miami. Her Round of 16 match was expected to be a competitive clash of strong servers against Ashlyn Krueger. However, Zheng dominated from the start, securing a 6-2 first set. Given the similar playing styles, a tiebreak seemed likely, and it materialized in the second set, where Zheng faced more resistance. She ultimately closed out the match 6-2, 7-6(3), once again demonstrating strong serving stats - winning 81% of points on her first serve and facing just 7 pressure points in the match.
Sabalenka enters the quarterfinal as the clear favorite, having defeated Zheng in all five of their previous encounters. Their three most recent meetings - at the US Open, Wuhan, and the WTA Finals - were all won by Sabalenka. While it might be overly optimistic to expect Zheng to pose a greater challenge than Collins, her strong serving this week could help make the match more competitive.
Jasmine Paolini (6) vs. Magda Linette
The Italian is playing her best tournament of 2025 so far, having struggled to meet expectations associated with her high seeding and last year’s form. This is her first quarterfinal of the season, earned after a thrilling victory over Naomi Osaka. The Japanese star was in stunning form early on, winning the first set and going on a remarkable streak of 24 consecutive service points won. However, momentum shifted away from the four-time Grand Slam champion as Paolini staged a comeback, showcasing her well-known all-court game, strong movement, and solid defense. This allowed her to overturn the deficit and win 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. Osaka’s strong start to the season was disrupted by injuries, keeping her out of competition from the Australian Open until Indian Wells. While she won three matches in Miami, two were hard-fought battles against lower-ranked opponents. Osaka has hinted that this may be her final season if she is unable to rediscover her top form. With the hard court swing now over and the clay season about to begin—a surface she has never favored—her performances later in the year, particularly in the US hard court summer, may determine her future in the WTA.
Paolini now faces an unexpected quarterfinal opponent in Magda Linette, who delivered one of the tournament’s biggest upsets on Monday. Following Madison Keys' early exit, another top American contender was eliminated as Coco Gauff suffered a shocking defeat to the Polish veteran, who entered the match as a heavy underdog with a pre-match betting odd of 6.1.
Linette, a surprise semifinalist at the 2023 Australian Open, has struggled to replicate such deep runs in major events, aside from two strong showings at clay-court WTA 250 tournaments (one title, one runner-up finish). At 33, she remains a consistent top-50 player without standout weapons but is still capable of producing major upsets. As is often in the case of big upsets, her solid performance was complemented by a poor showing from Gauff, who emphasised all her known liabilities, which drag down her time from time to time. The American struggled with serving issues, committing 14 double faults and winning only 34% of points on her second serve. Multiple forehand errors further contributed to her downfall, allowing Linette to capitalize and claim a 6-4, 6-4 victory. Gauff's recent slump is surprising given her strong start to the season, but she has yet to defeat a top-25 opponent since her impressive United Cup performance earlier this year.
Jessica Pegula (4) vs. Emma Raducanu
Pegula remains the only American left in the WTA draw, but her consistency is unsurprising - this marks her fourth consecutive quarterfinal appearance in Miami. Her campaign was highlighted by a hard-fought third-round win over Anna Kalinskaya, where she prevailed in a decisive tiebreak. She followed that with a routine 6-2, 6-3 victory over Marta Kostyuk on Monday.
Emma Raducanu is enjoying one of her best tournaments in years, reaching her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal since her shock US Open triumph in 2021. She has become a nightmare for American players, defeating three in a row. Most recently, she upset Amanda Anisimova, who had been favored after eliminating Mirra Andreeva in the previous round. However, the match-up did not suit Anisimova since the start, who never found her rhythm. Raducanu dominated from the start, winning 6-1, 6-3 in a commanding performance. She generated 25 pressure points while facing only 3 (!) herself. Her serve was particularly strong, winning 77% of first-serve points and 67% of second-serve points. With this result, Raducanu returns to the WTA top 50 for the first time since 2022. Pegula is the fourth American she will face in this tournament, and another upset is certainly possible. Statistical comparisons show Pegula’s edge in serving consistency, but if Raducanu maintains her current form showed this week, this could be a highly competitive match.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Alexandra Eala
Swiatek’s Miami Open run has differed from her dominant displays in Indian Wells and the Middle East swing, where she crushed early-round opponents. This time, every match has featured at least one competitive set. Her latest win came against Elina Svitolina, 7-6(5), 6-3, in a scrappy match featuring multiple breaks - Swiatek got broken 5 times, Svitolina lost 6 service games, and multiple pressure points (17 on Swiatek's serve, 39 on Svitolina's side). The Pole came out of it unscathed though, moving into quarters without losing a set yet. Not the super dominant performance showed yet might be a good omen though, as all the tournaments in previous weeks were started with some bagel-decorated wins, which got always surprisingly stopped by some lacklustre performance in the phase of semifinals or quarterfinals against better tier opponents.
Alexandra Eala lives the week of her life, which she owes both due to her standout performances as the underdog in matches against strongly favorized opponents, and also quite a sort of good luck. Paula Badosa was supposed to be her Round of 16 rival, but the Spaniard cannot find a longer period of rest from the lingering injury issues. She won two matches against lower ranked opponents in some not really convincing style, but withdrew from the tournament before the scheduled match against Eala. It's a really significant gifts for the player from Phillipines, who earns 95 ranking points for free just in this round (215 together for QF run) which is huge for the player who was 140th in rankings before the tournament (will end up just a margin behind top 100). Her run is quite a fairytale story, but it's difficult to find any arguments which could make another upset expectable against Swiatek this time. However, the possibility to take part in this kind of showdown is surely the reward which Eala could not imagine before the start of this event, and it's all to take out as the great experience for the future of this 19 years-old player.
