Following the US Open conclusion, the WTA Tour shifts to Mexico for the Guadalajara Open Akron presented by Santander. The WTA 500 event in Zapopan attracts a few notable names, as for the transition week between the last Grand Slam of a year and the transition to Asian hard courts swing. Elise Mertens leads the pack as the top seed, while Magdalena Frech takes the challenge of her first career's title defence. Here is the breakdown of what to expect from the week in Mexico, complemented with the data analysis performance heatmap.
Hit clash awaits from the start
Belgian top seed Elise Mertens showcases solid form in 2025 - capturing titles in 's-Hertogenbosch in June and Singapore, saving eleven match points en route to the Dutch title. This season she's compiled a 20-10 singles record on hard courts while being very stable as an all-rounder. She records 5 aces for the match on average while her 71.5% of first serve points is the 10th best performance in WTA field on hard courts in 2025, Winning 57.3% of second serve points and 40% of return games won also places her in the top 20 in those areas. Interestingly, Mertens played two times in Guadalajara before, but never passed second round in 2023 and 2024.
Mertens can set up an absolute hit clash of second round against Maria Sakkari, once the Greek defeats Elsa Jacquemot in the opening match. Sakkari comes back to form after dropping down in the low ranges of top 100 in the rankings. She won three matches in the main draw of WTA tournament just once in Madrid this year, however the runs into quarterfinal in Washington and third round in US Open was the promise of slowly coming back on track for the current world number 55. Tatjana Maria is another seed in top quarter alongside Mertens. The German has lifted up to the areas of top 50 due to her extraordinary form on grass this year, however she was also able to win the ITF tournament in Bangalore on hard courts in January.
Frech's title defense with much on stake
The Pole was a sensational winner of last year's edition, losing just one set on the whole road to the maiden WTA 500 level title. This sealed Frech's best season in career with 41 wins in 71 matches which cemented her place in top 30 of the rankings for almost whole the 2025. The current season is not so bright for the 27 years-old who sturggles with just 12 wins to 22 losses in whole year, including the miserable 7 out of 20 matches won on hard courts. Magdalena Frech has won two consecutive matches only in three events, but two of them were the most important ones - Australian Open and the recently ended US Open, where she played two great matches against Talia Gibson and Peyton Stearns, but had not much response against well disposed Coco Gauff in third round. This week is crucial for Frech's ranking, as she virtually drops out of top 50 with the deduction of last year's 500 points earned in Guadalajara. She is also just 61st in WTA Race, so the place where she played so well last time can be some kind of breakthrough to start a comeback to the ranking places where the Pole used to sit in last couple of months.
Frech can set up a super intriguing clash already in second round, having a bye for opening match as the 4th seed. Sloane Stephens comes back to action after 7 months of absence on professional courts. The American who won her last competitive match in July 2024 received a main draw wild card from the organizers. Before the potential clash with reigning champion, Stephens faces Lucrezia Stefanini who emerged from qualifying field. The third quarter of a draw led by Frech is really formidable, as it contains 3 qualifiers and two wild cards apart from the Pole and 7th seed Alycia Parks - the strongest server in the field who hits 7.1 aces per match on hard courts this season.
Kudermetova and Ostapenko in challenging quarters
The bottom quarter led by second seed Veronika Kudermetova seems to be a tricky one. The recent Cincinnati semifinalist had quite a time to get rest after her surprising lose to Janice Tjen in the opening round of US Open. She starts her campaign against one of the qualifiers, but there are some challenging opponents on her potential road to semifinal. The 17 years-old Iva Jovic is one of those. The American youngster already won 6 out of 11 matches played in WTA main draw level this year, recording great numbers with 66% of breakpoints saved (4th best in the field on hard courts) and 54% of breakpoints converted (10th best), which seems that the teenager has the mental attitude and tools to dominate in the crucial points. Before facing Kudermetova, Jovic can play against 8th seed Camila Osorio in second round. The Colombian won the title in Bogota in April being the best on her home soil on clay, but never replicated that performance on hard courts - Osorio is still yet to win two matches in one event on hard in 2025.
The world number 24 Jelena Ostapenko is another featured player in this tournament. This is the up and down season for the Latvian, who started promisingly with an extremely good run into final in Doha in February. However, Ostapenko recorded just 2 wins in 9 matches played on hard courts since then, struggling with serving consistency very much - 40.5% of 2nd serve points won on that surface in 2025 is one of the lowest records in the field, 61% of service games won does not rank her in top 100 in that area. 6.8 double faults committed on average does not help at all apart from the other liabilities.
Ostapenko can face tricky start, playing against Polina Kudermetova or the qualifier Marina Stakusic. The 22 years-old does not play the stunning season, however she was able to record two top-20 wins this season, advance into WTA 500 in Brisbane and play two competitive matches against the world's best hard court player right now - Aryna Sabalenka.
Magda Linette is another seed in Ostapenko's second quarter. The 5th seeded Pole plays one of the most interesting matches against Emiliana Arango. The Colombian had a great start of hard courts season, winning the WTA 125 in Cancun and surprisingly moving running into final in Merida, where she got double bageled by Emma Navarro. Arango did not repeat this performance more in the season, but those two results, complemented with the quarterfinal run into WTA 125 played in Guadalajara last week, proves that she plays very well playing in Mexico and can be a very dangerous opponent against the always solid Polish veteran.
Performance heatmap
The visualization of players performance on hard courts in 2025 clearly distinguishes Elise Mertens as the top favorite of this tournament - being the most dominant and efficient especially on serve. Jovic's efficiency in crucial points put her as the dangerous floater there. Veronika Kudermetova and Jelena Ostapenko will also try to make a deep run, unless either manages to past the opening rounds and put some consistency throughout the whole week.
