The 2026 tennis season quickly moves into second week with the Adelaide International WTA 500 being the top headline of the week in women's tennis, featuring a compelling field headlined by the reigning champion and world No. 7 Madison Keys. The American enters as the second seed with a strong 24-8 hard court record from 2025, establishing herself as the player to beat in this 30-player draw. Keys has won there last year which was a perfect warm-up before the sensational Grand Slam bid in Melbourne, which defined the best period in the career of the 30 years-old. With three top-10 players and seven top-20 competitors assembled, Adelaide promises an exciting start to the new campaign on the Australian hard courts.
Top half: Andreeva seeks revival in tricky section
Mirra Andreeva tops the upper half, coming into Brisbane with a 23-9 record on hard courts in last 52 weeks, mostly boosted by the delightful post-Australian Open campaign in February and March last year. The end of the season was not so bright for the youngster who was seemingly out of the gas both physically and mentally which resulted with missing the WTA Finals qualification by a very little margin. Andreeva looks forward to bounce back with a good start of 2026. She kicked-off in the WTA 500 in Brisbane, coming into quarterfinals and coming short to Marta Kostyk - the eventual runner-up.
Andreeva's path in Adelaide is really challenging despite receiving bye in the opening round. The Russian can meet either Paula Badosa or the lucky loser Marie Bouzkova in second round. Badosa makes another attempt to comeback into competition on the full throttle after the 2025 season almost totally dismantled by the injuries. The heatmap performance analysis shows that Badosa still brings the quality on court once fit, so her possible second round match-up against Andreeva would be the most anticipated hit clash of the draw's top half.
The possible quarterfinal match-up also looks tasty, as Andreeva can meet Clara Tauson, bringing an impressive 4-0 head-to-head advantage over fifth seed.
Tauson faces immediate pressure with a tough opening assignment against wildcard Ajla Tomljanovic, who defeated the Dane in their most recent encounter. Tauson's current three-match losing streak and 43.8% tiebreak record on hard courts raise concerns about her early-round prospects. Meanwhile, ninth seed Diana Shnaider opens against Leylah Fernandez in what could be a pivotal first-round clash.
The heatmap analysis reveals significant disparities within this section. Mirra Andreeva shows exceptional match efficiency and dominance ratios, suggesting she converts good positions into victories. Badosa and Bozukova are about to set up really intriguing first round's clash, as the Czech excels in return games winning % and taking the breakpoint chances. The veteran Sorana Cirstea is also there waiting for an opportunity to put some significant upsets.
Bottom half: Keys, Alexandrova, Mboko lead the pack
Madison Keys gets placed in a really difficult section on the road to title defence in Adelaide. The American gets bye in opening round, but can meet the unpredictable and always dangerous Jelena Ostapenko in second round, unless the Latvian overcomes the youngster qualifier - Tereza Valentova. Another teenage waits for Keys in the projected quarterfinals, as the new star and WTA 1000 Canadian Open champion Victoria Mboko enters there as 8th seed and one of the top three players of the half according to the performance heatmap.
Fourth seed Ekaterina Alexandrova is another top 10 participant alongside Keys and Andreeva, facing qualifier Jaqueline Cristian in her opener. The Russian's 68.7% first serve points won percentage gives her a solid foundation, though her concerning 36.4% tiebreak record on hard courts could prove problematic in tight matches.
Sixth seed Emma Navarro opens against wildcard Emerson Jones but enters on a three-match losing streak with just a 54.8% hard court win rate. Her superior return statistics (38.0% vs first serve, 59.0% vs second serve) could help her navigate early rounds, but her recent struggles against top competition raise questions about her title credentials.
Seventh seed Liudmila Samsonova faces former Wimbledon finalist Marketa Vondrousova in a compelling first-round matchup. Samsonova's 53.1% hard court win rate represents the weakest surface record among major seeds, while eighth seed Victoria Mboko brings excellent recent form (8-2 in last 10 matches) despite poor tiebreak statistics.
This section's statistical profile shows Ekaterina Alexandrova and Madison Keys dominating service metrics, while Victoria Mboko excels in match efficiency and clutch break point conversion.
Keys remains the favorite given her success history from last year and the overall experience, however the young contenders like Andreeva and Mboko will surely put the great battle on the court, adding the always steady Ekaterina Alexandrova to the tally.with Andreeva representing the most dangerous threat from the opposite half. A Keys-Andreeva final would provide an intriguing contrast of styles, while dark horse Mboko's excellent recent form makes her a potential spoiler in the bottom section.