The Miami Open 2025 kicks off today, following an exciting Indian Wells tournament that saw the world's best players battle it out in decisive phases last weekend. The action doesn’t slow down, as Miami hosts another major tournament featuring 96 players in the main draw. As in California, the 32 seeds have received byes in the opening round and will begin their campaigns in the second round on Thursday and Friday. This event marks the conclusion of the first hard-court segment of the 2025 season before the transition to the clay surface in the coming weeks.
Let's break down each quarter of the draw and analyze who we can expect to perform well based on the form displayed so far this season.
First Quarter: Sabalenka leads a competitive section
Aryna Sabalenka headlines the first quarter as the world number one and top seed. She arrives in Miami following a heartbreaking defeat in Sunday’s Indian Wells final. The Belarusian had a stunning run in the desert, reaching the final without dropping a single set. However, after a strong start against Mirra Andreeva, Sabalenka lost control of the match from the second set onward, making uncharacteristic errors and struggling to find answers to her opponent’s stellar play.
Despite that disappointment, Sabalenka's season—featuring two final appearances at the Australian Open and Indian Wells—has been far from slow, especially given her impressive on-court statistics. She remains the top favorite in this quarter, which also features Elena Rybakina. Meanwhile, Qinwen Zheng looks to build on her promising return to form at Indian Wells, where she ended a losing streak and advanced to the quarterfinals. If both Zheng and Rybakina reach the Round of 16, they will set up one of the most anticipated clashes of the tournament next Monday.
Any other quarterfinalist from this section would be a surprise, including defending champion Danielle Collins. The American has struggled this season, failing to secure a top-50 win since Wimbledon last year. Her form has been so inconsistent that she doesn’t even appear in the performance heatmap of this quarter’s strongest players. If she manages to progress, she could face Sabalenka in a potential Round of 16 showdown.
Second Quarter: A wide-open battle without clear favorites
The second quarter promises to be highly competitive due to the absence of a dominant favorite. Based on her performance during the Australian swing, Naomi Osaka surprisingly tops the performance heatmap in this section, ahead of even Coco Gauff.
Gauff, the third seed, snapped her losing streak at Indian Wells, but she remains far from her peak form. Other notable contenders, such as Daria Kasatkina, Ons Jabeur, Ekaterina Alexandrova, and Jasmine Paolini, have shown flashes of brilliance this year but have yet to deliver a breakthrough result. Perhaps the openness of this quarter will provide them with the perfect opportunity to step up in Miami.
While Gauff (3rd) and Paolini (6th) are the highest seeds, this section is unpredictable, and the potential quarterfinal lineup could feature some unexpected names.
Third Quarter: Can Andreeva continue her dream run?
Mirra Andreeva arrives in Miami riding a wave of momentum after securing back-to-back titles at WTA 1000 events. The young sensation will be under the spotlight as fans eagerly watch to see if she can continue her fairytale run and achieve the prestigious Sunshine Double.
However, maintaining peak form over an extended period is incredibly demanding—especially for a still-developing teenager. While it’s uncertain whether she can sustain her level, her recent performances have left no gaps in her game. Her serve has been exceptionally strong, and her tactical awareness has been remarkable. Still, Miami presents a new challenge, and a potential dip in form is always a possibility.
Jessica Pegula, the fourth seed, brings consistent results and remains a strong favorite to reach at least the quarterfinals. Several other players could make a deep run, including Doha champion Amanda Anisimova, top-10 player Emma Navarro, and the rising McCartney Kessler. The list of contenders in this quarter is deep, with at least eight potential names in the mix.
Fourth Quarter: Swiatek's quest for a big title continues
Iga Swiatek leads the fourth quarter as the top seed and statistical frontrunner. However, a significant potential clash looms—Madison Keys is also in this section, setting up a possible rematch of their Australian Open semifinal thriller, which Keys won in three sets.
Keys made a deep run in Indian Wells, but after showing great resilience in earlier rounds, she was completely overpowered by Sabalenka in the semifinals, suffering an unexpected 0-6, 1-6 defeat.
Swiatek has consistently reached the latter stages of tournaments this season but has struggled in the decisive moments, failing to reach a final in 2025 despite dominant early-round wins, including several bagel sets. The Pole has fond memories of Miami, having won the title in 2022. However, she has not claimed a trophy since last year’s Roland Garros, with unexpected losses preventing her from reaching the finals in recent months.
This quarter is packed with notable names. Belinda Bencic, still unseeded but rapidly climbing the rankings (now 45th), faces a tough path, starting with a high-profile first-round clash against Dayana Yastremska. The winner of that match will then meet Elina Svitolina in the second round.
Other players to watch include Paula Badosa, who is returning from injury after missing Indian Wells, as well as Karolina Muchova, Clara Tauson, and Jelena Ostapenko, all of whom have performed well at WTA 1000 events this year. Whoever emerges from this section will undoubtedly be a well-established name in the tennis world.
