The WTA 1000 Cincinnati Open enters its crucial phase as the Round of 16 kicks off today. The upper half of the draw features the biggest names in women's tennis, with world number one Iga Swiatek returning to action after a third-round walkover to face Sorana Cirstea. Aryna Sabalenka looks to continue her title chase against the in-form Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, while Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys are set for a blockbuster clash. With some previous round's matches ending up today due to yesterday's weather delays, the action promises high-stakes tennis as the tournament's elite begin their quarterfinal push.
Sabalenka vs. Bouzas Maneiro
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Emma Raducanu in an absolute thriller which lasted 3 hours and 12 minutes and delivered huge emotions on and around the court. What is unusual for long three-setters in WTA, this match maintained a really high level throughout. Raducanu came up to par with Sabalenka's level and did not allow the favored opponent to overhit her. Sabalenka was not playing her best for sure, and Raducanu was able to capitalize on some inconsistency from the world number one, scoring a brilliant 52% of second return points. Sabalenka was clutch in her previous match against Marketa Vondrousova, where she defended all 12 breakpoints and utilized all 3 created to win in straight sets. It was not the same story here, as Raducanu did not give up even in difficult moments - just to mention the 8th game of the extremely long decisive set, which itself lasted 23 minutes. Raducanu defended 4 breakpoints there and managed to push into a match tiebreak. However, 13th games are successful for Sabalenka this year, as she won 83.3% of them on hard courts and did it twice in this match as well, winning 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(5).
The next challenge won't be any easier, as Sabalenka faces Jessica Bouzas Maneiro who is in excellent form over the recent two weeks. The surprising quarterfinalist of the National Bank Open in Montreal, losing only to the eventual champion Victoria Mboko, continues her great run with three straight-sets victories scored in Cincinnati. The 22-year-old Spaniard shows an interesting, attacking playstyle and has everything to play for against the world number one on centre court on Tuesday. She already showed she can deliver under pressure against big names, defeating Venus Williams in the opening round, then following this with victories over Leylah Fernandez and Taylor Townsend. The discrepancy in abilities is still there though, especially on serve, but Bouzas Maneiro needs to take all her chances if the favorite shows any vulnerabilities on the day.
Rybakina vs. Keys
Elena Rybakina reached the Round of 16 after two tough matches won 7-5 in the decisive set, coming back from being a set down twice. Her first match against Renata Zarazua was not an impressive outing, especially as Rybakina seemingly suffered from minor calf injury issues. The match against the always-solid Elise Mertens was high-quality entertainment though. Mertens surprisingly matched Rybakina's amount of aces (11) and pushed the Kazakh to the limit in the third set. It could have gone either way, as Mertens had 3 breakpoints in the 6th game of the decider, but Rybakina survived the threat and finally delivered in the decisive moments. It was a really nice comeback from winning just 42% of first serve points in the first set to ending up with a hefty amount of 36 winners compared to just 34 unforced errors - although some of them were really easy forehand misses on both sides.
Madison Keys sets up a spicy match-up against Rybakina on Tuesday. The American is not playing the same tennis which gave her the maiden Grand Slam in Australia, being much more erratic in recent months. She was not impressive in Montreal last week and her Cincy campaign could have ended in the first match, as she came back from being a break down in the third set and defending two match points on her own serve against Eva Lys - the world's number 62. Keys survived this match, winning in a tiebreak, and followed it with a more routine victory against Aoi Ito. The match against Rybakina can have any outcome. The stats suggest the Kazakh will rely on her serve, while Keys will try to be effective on return provided the consistency of her hitting is at the proper level.
Alexandrova vs. Kalinskaya
Anna Kalinskaya checked into the Round of 16 after defeating two Americans - Peyton Stearns and the recent Wimbledon runner-up Amanda Anisimova. The match against the latter was expected to be one of the most interesting clashes of the previous round and ended up as quite an upset. The Russian was rated with odds around 2.75, but played much more solid tennis against Anisimova who looked quite gassed and made multiple simple errors. It's the 13th top 10 victory for Kalinskaya who still looks forward to a breakthrough result in her career, having lost her 4th career final in Washington two weeks ago. Her more experienced compatriot Ekaterina Alexandrova will be another test. Alexandrova is playing a very solid season, staying steady in the top 20 of the rankings, however most of her success came on clay this year. The hard courts season was highlighted so far by the run to the semifinals in Doha (including a win over Aryna Sabalenka), but after this, she suffered 4 consecutive losses on that surface. The rot stopped in Cincinnati after defeating Lulu Sun and youngster Maya Joint in straight sets. Despite Kalinskaya's ceiling seeming to be a bit higher, Alexandrova is the slight favorite according to odds thanks to her solidity, also reflected in the stats comparison. It's also the extremely uncomfortable match-up for the younger of both, as Kalinskaya lost all the previous 6 matches played against Alexandrova so far.
Swiatek vs. Cirstea
Iga Swiatek faces Sorana Cirstea after having a day off in the third round due to Marta Kostyuk's withdrawal. It's obvious that Swiatek is a huge favorite here, still chasing her first final on hard courts since last year's Indian Wells - so 17 months already. Swiatek had a few promising runs and very confident victories on hard courts this year, but always lacked consistency at the later stages of tournaments. Now, the draw looks quite favorable for her, at least until the semifinals, where she could set up a hot clash against her big rival - Aryna Sabalenka. Swiatek has a good memories from previous matches against the Romanian, leading 4-0 in their H2H so far.
Cirstea has not played at the highest level full-time since last year, when she lost the entire second half of the season due to injuries. In 2025 she was forced to skip almost the entire spring clay season, but still has two highlights this year, with a run to the quarterfinals in Dubai in February and being a semifinalist on home soil at the WTA 250 in Iasi a month ago. Cincinnati is her third run this year with three victories scored, and all of those came after tight three-setters, including wins against Donna Vekic and Swiatek's compatriot Magdalena Frech.
Tuesday's matches to complete
Not all the matches from Round of 32 crossed the finish line, as the severe weather came to Cincinnati in Tuesday's later afternoon, which tormented the schedule quite a bit. That forced the match between Clara Tauson and Veronika Kudermetova to be fully rescheduled for today, while Jessica Pegula and Magda Linette end up their clash, continuing from the start of third set as the Pole has surprisingly won the opening one in tiebreak. The winners of both with complete the Round of 16 line-up for bottom half of the draw, which plays on Thursday.